The Fed's 9 Dec decision on three exchanges: hike 0.25 pts at 75% on Kalshi, 75% on Polymarket US, 77% on Polymarket

The exchanges agree within 5 points on every outcome · each exchange's chances are scaled to add up to 100%; different crowds with different money

Markets · Markets · Kalshi · Polymarket US · Polymarket · 8 Nov 2026