Prediction markets: Kalshi, Polymarket odds

What Kalshi and Polymarket traders and election markets price in for rates, inflation, stocks and elections, with each market's source.

Polymarket (Markets desk)

Polymarket is a data page on the Markets desk of Glassbox Auditing. Prediction-market odds on finance and government questions, and who is betting big.

Last updated: .

What is on this page today?

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from Polymarket; Kalshi · Polymarket US · Polymarket; Polymarket US. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

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What feeds this page?

What else is on the Markets desk?

Kalshi (Markets desk)

Kalshi is a data page on the Markets desk of Glassbox Auditing. What real-money bettors expect for SPY, the Fed and the next economic reports.

Last updated: .

What is on this page today?

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from Kalshi; Federal Reserve Board (Summary of Economic Projections). Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

What feeds this page?

  • Federal Reports (Calendar): Kalshi's markets on CPI, payrolls and the Fed's decision settle on these releases, so the odds move in the days before each one and settle on the day. (either way, depending on the cause; days before each release; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
  • All Indicators (Macro): Kalshi's markets on the Fed's rate, CPI and payrolls settle on the official figures this board carries, so the odds there are bets on the next value of these rows. (either way, depending on the cause; days before each release; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
  • Prices & Inflation (Macro): Hotter inflation readings tend to raise the odds Kalshi traders put on a higher Fed rate path and on the higher brackets of the next CPI print. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
  • Fed Statements (Macro): Kalshi's rate markets settle on the Committee's decision, and its statements, projections and the Chair's remarks are what traders read for the next one, so officials' wording can move those odds. (either way, depending on the cause; days before each meeting; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve Board, Summary of Economic Projections (FOMC projection tables).
  • Live Now (Markets): Kalshi lists contracts on where the S&P 500 ends the hour, the day and the year; their prices reprice as SPY moves, so the crowd's range shifts with the live price. (moves the same way; minutes; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
  • SPY (Options): SPY options and Kalshi's S&P 500 range contracts price the same outcome, so where option traders place their bets and the crowd's range on Kalshi tend to move together. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
  • Central Banks (World Powers): Kalshi's Fed markets price the next decision; a surprise move by another big central bank or a shift in the Fed's stance moves those odds. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
  • World Log (World Powers): A Fed rate decision logged here settles Kalshi's Fed-decision markets and resets the odds for the next meeting. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.

What else is on the Markets desk?

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