Settled big positions that matched the insider pattern won 30% of the time (42 of 138), against 40% as the average price paid
watch-list positions 60% (145 of 242) · all other big positions 83% (4328 of 5227) · a price is the crowd's chance, so winning less often than it was priced means the bets did worse than the crowd expected · a pattern in how people bet, never proof of anything
Markets · Markets · Polymarket · 8 Nov 2026