The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on 30 Oct, 0.83 points above a year earlier: +0.41 from the term premium and +0.42 from expected short rates

4.11% a year earlier · the part from expected short rates is the yield less the premium, the average short rate the model expects over ten years

Macro · Debt and interest · Federal Reserve Board (Treasury yields, H.15; Kim-Wright term premium model) · 29 Oct 2026