4% withdrawals from a 60/40 stock and bond mix lasted 30 years in 94% of start years

69 start years, 1928 to 1996; each year's withdrawal is 4% of the starting balance, raised with inflation; 60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury bonds

Macro · Personal Finance · Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern · 30 Dec 2025