Progress Level

Progress Level is a data page on the AI desk of Glassbox Auditing. How capable the best AI model is on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index, how fast that level is rising, the U.S. lead over China, how many U.S. businesses use AI and what near-frontier AI costs. The pace of progress is the clearest test of whether the money going into chips, data centers and power is still buying better models.

Last updated: 7 Nov 2026.

What is the latest reading?

Best AI capability, month by month: 169 ECI points as of 7 Nov 2026, +65.8% since Feb 2023. Source: Epoch AI Capabilities Index (CC BY 4.0).

What is on this page today?

Of 7 measures of AI progress, 2 are strengthening, 4 steady and 1 weakening against their own history — strengthening: U.S. businesses using AI, Cheapest near-frontier model · steady: General capability, Task length the best model finishes half the time, Benchmarks: median share of room closed in a year, New models… (Epoch AI, METR via Epoch AI, Epoch AI model catalogue, Epoch AI Benchmarking Hub, Epoch AI catalogue + Hugging Face, Census BTOS, OpenRouter, 7 Nov 2026)
Gemini 4 Carbon (High) (Google) is rated highest by LMArena's blind votes at 1539 — Epoch's capabilities index puts GPT-6 Astra first · top five by LMArena rating (Elo scale), people choosing the better answer · the two orders agree where the lead is robust (LMArena, 5 Nov 2026)
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (DeepSeek) became the best Chinese model: 158.7 — New Chinese best · DeepSeek (Epoch AI Capabilities Index, 16 Oct 2026)
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (DeepSeek) became the best open-weights model: 158.7 — New open-weights best · DeepSeek (Epoch AI Capabilities Index, 16 Oct 2026)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from Epoch AI, METR via Epoch AI, Epoch AI model catalogue, Epoch AI Benchmarking Hub, Epoch AI catalogue + Hugging Face, Census BTOS, OpenRouter; LMArena; Epoch AI Capabilities Index. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

AI Supply Chain (AI): Each step up the capability index comes from training on larger chip clusters, so faster progress goes with heavier orders for accelerators, memory, networking and data-center power. (moves the same way; quarters; sector scale) Source: Epoch AI Capabilities Index (CC BY 4.0).
Business & Industry (AI): As capability rises and near-frontier prices fall, more tasks become worth handing to AI; Census's business survey shows how many firms actually do. (moves the same way; months to years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey.
Nation (AI): Capability gains reach the national accounts through investment in computers and software and, later, productivity; the Nation page reads whether they have. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Big Tech Map (Options): Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft (through OpenAI) and Amazon (through Anthropic) run or fund frontier labs, so a new best model tends to move their shares and option bets, either way depending on who leads. (either way, depending on the cause; days; company scale) Source: Epoch AI Capabilities Index (CC BY 4.0).

What feeds this page?

Benchmarks (AI): Epoch's Capabilities Index is built from dozens of these benchmarks, so new best scores feed straight into the frontier level and its pace. (moves the same way; weeks; sector scale) Source: Epoch AI Capabilities Index (CC BY 4.0).