Election Outlook

Election Outlook is a data page on the Domestic Intelligence desk of Glassbox Auditing. The U.S. races on the next ballot with three outside views side by side (forecasters' ratings, VotePredictor's model and Polymarket's traders), plus each member of Congress's voting-record score and reported wealth. Which party controls Congress decides which tax, spending and regulatory bills can pass, and markets price those odds.

Last updated: 8 Nov 2026.

What is the latest reading?

Senate: the Democrats' chance of control (VotePredictor's model): 66.8% as of 7 Nov 2026, +19.6 pts since Sep 2026. Source: VotePredictor (election forecasts, forecaster accuracy, members' ideology and reported net worth).

What is on this page today?

KS Senate: Adam Hamilton (D) 42% → 27% — -14.5 points in 24 hours on Polymarket (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
NC-3 House seat: Greg Murphy (R) 18% → 13% — -5.8 points in 24 hours on Polymarket (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
NY governor: Bruce Blakeman (R) 6% → 2% — -4.4 points in 24 hours on Polymarket (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
AK-at-large House seat: Republican Party 95% → 91% — -3.9 points in 24 hours on Polymarket (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
CA governor: Xavier Becerra 80% → 76% — -3.2 points in 24 hours on Polymarket (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
Guam House general runoffs on Tuesday 17 Nov in GU, VI — House · in 9 days (State election offices, 16 Nov 2026)
Georgia House general runoff on Tuesday 1 Dec in GA — House, Senate · in 23 days (State election offices, 30 Nov 2026)
CA-40 House seat: Ken Calvert 96% → 99% — +2.2 points in 24 hours on Polymarket (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
OH-10 House seat: forecasters moved the race from Likely R to Lean R — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
MT-1 House seat: forecasters moved the race from Tilt R to Tilt D — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
AZ governor: forecasters moved the race from Lean D to Likely D — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
GA governor: forecasters moved the race from Toss-up to Tilt D — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
PA-1 House seat: forecasters moved the race from Toss-up to Tilt D — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
VT governor: forecasters moved the race from Likely R to Lean R — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
CO-5 House seat: forecasters moved the race from Lean R to Tilt R — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
KY-6 House seat: forecasters moved the race from Tilt R to Toss-up — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
OH-9 House seat: forecasters moved the race from Tilt D to Lean D — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
OH governor: forecasters moved the race from Tilt D to Lean D — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
WI governor: forecasters moved the race from Tilt D to Lean D — Consensus rating shifted toward Democrats since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)
ME-2 House seat: forecasters moved the race from Toss-up to Tilt R — Consensus rating shifted toward Republicans since 25 Oct (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters, 7 Nov 2026)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from Polymarket; State election offices; Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and other forecasters; VotePredictor; S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P 500 daily closes); Library of Congress (presidents' terms); Yahoo Finance (daily index and currency closes); Wikipedia election articles (result dates). Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

Budget & Spending (Macro): Control of the House, Senate and White House decides which tax and spending bills can pass, so the odds of one party holding all three are odds on the fiscal path. (either way, depending on the cause; after the election; economy scale) Source: Wikipedia election pages: races, forecasters' ratings, polls (CC BY-SA).
SPY History (Markets): Markets price expected results in advance, and on election night stocks move on the gap between the result and the odds traders held. (either way, depending on the cause; election night; economy scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
Stock by Stock (Markets): Sectors most exposed to policy tend to move most when control changes hands; after the November 2024 result, bank and small-company shares rose and solar shares fell. (either way, depending on the cause; days; sector scale) Source: Yahoo Finance prices.
Government (People & Money): Races decided here change who holds each seat on Government; open seats and close races are where turnover in Congress comes from. (either way, depending on the cause; at swearing-in; economy scale) Source: VotePredictor (election forecasts, forecaster accuracy, members' ideology and reported net worth).
Leaders & Policy (World Powers): U.S. control decides tariff, sanctions and aid policy toward other countries, and trade partners' currencies such as the Mexican peso have moved sharply on U.S. election nights (2016, 2024). (either way, depending on the cause; election night; global scale) Source: Yahoo Finance prices.

What feeds this page?

Upcoming (Calendar): Election dates are when policy uncertainty on taxes, tariffs and regulation resolves; the races and forecasters' ratings behind them are on Election Outlook. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: Wikipedia election pages: races, forecasters' ratings, polls (CC BY-SA).
Health Board (Domestic Intelligence): Local economic conditions (jobs, prices, housing) are among the best-documented influences on how incumbents fare, so a state's drags are context for its races. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (states 1976+, counties 1990+).
Jurisdictions (Domestic Intelligence): A place's past vote shares are the baseline for its next races, and a large shift between elections marks where seats come into play. (either way, depending on the cause; election cycle; economy scale) Source: MIT Election Data + Science Lab, U.S. President 1976-2024.
Activism & Safety (Domestic Intelligence): A study of the 2009 Tea Party rallies found larger local protests raised later turnout and votes for the movement's candidates (Madestam et al., 2013), so protest is one input to how races go. (either way, depending on the cause; election cycle; economy scale) Source: Crowd Counting Consortium (Harvard Ash Center / UConn), CC0 1.0.
Polymarket (Markets): Election Outlook turns Polymarket's prices on each race into a market-implied lean, so a shift in the odds here moves that page's market reading. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
Media Bias (Feed): When a candidate or race is among the day's top stories, this page shows which outlets covered it; the mix of outlets is a record of coverage, not a measure of how people vote. (either way, depending on the cause; days; economy scale) Source: Google News: headlines and outlets of the same story (linked, not fetched).
Political Money (People & Money): Money raised and outside spending are inputs the forecasters weigh, and parties and donors put the most into the races they see as closest. (either way, depending on the cause; election cycle; economy scale) Source: FEC bulk data: candidate and PAC financial summaries.
Interest Groups (People & Money): Outside groups concentrate independent expenditures in close races and primaries, so their spending marks the contests they treat as decisive. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks before a vote; economy scale) Source: FEC independent expenditures (outside spending).
Elections & Polls (World Powers): U.S. national elections decide who sets tax, spending and trade policy; the Election Outlook page carries the forecasters' ratings and markets race by race. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: Wikipedia election pages: races, forecasters' ratings, polls (CC BY-SA).