Conflict Zones

Conflict Zones is a data page on the Global Intelligence desk of Glassbox Auditing. Military aircraft, naval vessels, tankers and other ships logged inside fences around contested seas and chokepoints, from Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to the Black Sea and the Taiwan Strait, set against IMF PortWatch's daily transits since 2019. A sustained fall in transits means cargoes rerouted, delayed or stopped, which moves crude and freight prices.

Last updated: 8 Nov 2026.

What is the latest reading?

Strait of Hormuz: tankers crossing per day: 1 count as of 1 Nov 2026, -97.0% since Jan 2019. Source: IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint transits.

What is on this page today?

Armed conflict events: 324 in 24 hours, 25% below the 30-day norm — 30-day average 433 a day (UCDP Candidate Events, 8 Nov 2026)
Persian Gulf: 18 military aircraft seen inside on 7 Nov, +0 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Oresund (Danish Straits): 6 naval and law-enforcement vessels seen inside on 7 Nov, -1 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Eastern Mediterranean: 10 military aircraft seen inside on 7 Nov, +1 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Gulf of Finland: 2 naval and law-enforcement vessels seen inside on 7 Nov, +1 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Military and naval arrivals into the watched zones: 1,268 in the last 7 days — most into Persian Gulf (605), Eastern Mediterranean (232), Black Sea (121) · an arrival is an aircraft or vessel first seen inside a zone's fence; the same one may arrive again (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Black Sea: 6 military aircraft seen inside on 7 Nov, +0 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Taiwan Strait: 1 naval and law-enforcement vessels seen inside on 7 Nov, +1 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Bosporus: 3 military aircraft seen inside on 7 Nov, +1 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Gulf of Finland: 2 military aircraft seen inside on 7 Nov, +2 on the same day a week earlier — distinct objects inside the zone's geofence in the UTC day, from the free position feeds; only what broadcasts is counted (ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions, 6 Nov 2026)
Ombai Strait: tanker transits 57% below their 90-day level — 1.3 a day over the last 7 days vs 3.0 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Balabac Strait: tanker transits 79% above their 90-day level — 6.6 a day over the last 7 days vs 3.7 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Kerch Strait: tanker transits 100% below their 90-day level — 0.0 a day over the last 7 days vs 0.0 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Bering Strait: tanker transits 46% below their 90-day level — 1.0 a day over the last 7 days vs 1.9 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Luzon Strait: tanker transits 34% above their 90-day level — 37.1 a day over the last 7 days vs 27.7 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Tsugaru Strait: tanker transits 32% below their 90-day level — 9.6 a day over the last 7 days vs 14.0 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Makassar Strait: tanker transits 24% below their 90-day level — 4.9 a day over the last 7 days vs 6.4 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Mindoro Strait: tanker transits 24% below their 90-day level — 3.7 a day over the last 7 days vs 4.9 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Dover Strait: tanker transits 19% above their 90-day level — 63.3 a day over the last 7 days vs 53.3 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)
Bosporus Strait: tanker transits 17% below their 90-day level — 12.7 a day over the last 7 days vs 15.3 (IMF PortWatch, 31 Oct 2026)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from UCDP Candidate Events; ADSB.lol military aircraft and AISStream vessel positions; IMF PortWatch. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

Oil Stress (Macro): A sustained fall in tanker transits through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb or the Danish Straits is the shipping stress the oil reading counts: cargoes delayed, rerouted or stopped. (moves the same way; days; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).
Prices & Inflation (Macro): Red Sea attacks since late 2023 sent most Suez traffic round Africa, adding one to two weeks per voyage and raising ocean freight rates, a cost that reaches the prices of imported goods. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: BLS producer price indexes for freight (truckload, LTL, rail, deep-sea, air) and the Cass Freight Index, via FRED.
Commodities (Global Intelligence): Ukraine and Russia ship much of the world's wheat, corn and sunflower oil out of the Black Sea, so attacks or blockades there tend to lift grain prices, as in 2022. (moves the same way; days to weeks; global scale) Source: FAO Food Price Index.
AI Supply Chain (AI): Chinese exercises that close parts of the Taiwan Strait sit on the lane for chips made in Taiwan, where TSMC makes most leading-edge chips; chip buyers' annual reports name this as a supply risk. (either way, depending on the cause; days; sector scale) Source: SEC EDGAR filings (10-Q/10-K text).
Company (Companies): Rerouting round Africa tied up container ships and lifted freight rates, which raised container lines' earnings in 2024, ZIM's among them. (moves the same way; the next quarterly report; company scale) Source: Yahoo Finance prices.
Transport & Internet (Global Intelligence): Attacks on ships from late 2023 kept most container lines out of the Red Sea, cutting vessel counts at Bab el-Mandeb, and in 2024 a stricken ship's dragged anchor is thought to have cut three cables there. (moves the other way; days; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).

What feeds this page?

United Nations (World Powers): The Council authorises peacekeeping missions and arms embargoes for the conflicts on that page; firms operating or shipping there must comply with those embargoes. (either way, depending on the cause; months; global scale) Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset.