Business Activity

Business Activity is a data page on the Macro desk of Glassbox Auditing. The Census Bureau's monthly business indicators: retail sales, factory and capital-goods orders, construction spending, new business applications, inventories and the trade balance, each against its own record. They are the first hard read each month on whether shoppers and businesses are spending, ahead of GDP.

Last updated: 29 Sep 2026.

What is the latest reading?

Retail and food-service sales: 745 $B as of 1 Sep 2026, +368.0% since Jan 1992. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).

What is on this page today?

Retail and food-service sales: $745.0B in Sep 2026, +0.8% on the month — +6.3% on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
Core capital goods orders (non-defense, excluding aircraft): $88.0B in Sep 2026, +0.5% on the month — +13.5% on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
Construction spending, annual rate: $2.19T in Sep 2026, -1.9% on the month — -2.7% on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
Trade balance, goods and services: -$105.0B in Sep 2026, +$0.7B on the month — -$45.7B on a year earlier (Census Bureau and BEA, 29 Sep 2026)
New orders for durable goods: $345.4B in Sep 2026, +1.8% on the month — +9.9% on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
Non-residential building ran at $1,325 billion a year in September 2026, homes $861 billion — $547 billion of the total is public · +1.8% on a year earlier · seasonally adjusted annual rate (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
Manufacturers' new orders, all industries: $677.2B in Sep 2026, +1.8% on the month — +10.5% on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
Inventories-to-sales ratio: 1.33 in Aug 2026, -0.01 pts on the month — -0.07 pts on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 30 Aug 2026)
Total business sales (factories, wholesalers, retailers): $2.12T in Aug 2026, +1.1% on the month — +10.2% on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 30 Aug 2026)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from Census Bureau; Census Bureau and BEA. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

Supply & Demand (Companies): A rising Census inventories-to-sales ratio for an industry means its stock is outgrowing its sales as a whole, which shows up in its companies' quarters as inventory growing faster than sales. (moves the same way; months; sector scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
All Indicators (Macro): Retail sales, construction spending and equipment orders are direct inputs to BEA's GDP estimate, so strong months here tend to show in the quarter's growth figure. (moves the same way; the next GDP report; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Company Reports (Calendar): Monthly retail sales are an early read on what store chains, online sellers and restaurants report for the quarter. (moves the same way; the next quarterly report; sector scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
AI Supply Chain (AI): Non-residential construction includes the data centers and factories being built, so its growth runs alongside the capital spending that chip, power-equipment and cloud companies report. (moves the same way; quarters; sector scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Labor Market (Macro): Business applications that plan to pay wages tend to turn into new employers within one to two years, adding jobs. (moves the same way; 4-8 quarters; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (business applications by state).
Economies & Debt (World Powers): U.S. imports are the other side of partners' exports, so U.S. demand feeds export economies such as China, Mexico, Canada and Germany. (moves the same way; months; global scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Trade (goods exports and imports by partner and state).
Supply Map (Companies): When inventories pile up against sales, retailers and distributors cut orders to their suppliers, which reaches manufacturers and freight a few months later. (moves the other way; 1-3 months; company scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).

What feeds this page?

AI Supply Chain (AI): Orders for computers and electronic products and spending on data-center construction carry the build-out into the Census business indicators. (moves the same way; quarters; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Business & Industry (AI): The survey that measures AI use also reports each industry's revenue, demand and outlook; AI-heavy industries were stronger to begin with, so the link is an association, not cause. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey.
Supply Map (Companies): Orders passed from big customers to their suppliers add up to the durable-goods orders and inventories in the Census reports. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Auto & Energy (Companies): Motor vehicles and parts are among the largest categories of durable-goods orders and retail sales, so carmakers' output swings those Census reports. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Supply & Demand (Companies): Companies whose stock outgrows their sales add up to a higher ratio of business inventories to sales in the Census reports, and slower factory orders tend to follow. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (10-Q/10-K).
US Map (Domestic Intelligence): Business applications by state add up to the national count, and applications from likely employers tend to come months before the new firms hire. (moves the same way; 1-2 quarters; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (business applications by state).
Vehicles (Domestic Intelligence): New vehicle sales are one of the largest parts of retail sales, so a drop in them shows up in the Census retail figures and in factory orders. (moves the same way; same month; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Web Tracking (Feed): Searches tied to shopping and spending tend to lead the Census monthly retail sales figure, the hard data the growth index here is checked against. (moves the same way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Amazon Listings (Feed): Online purchases are counted in the Census monthly retail sales as nonstore retailers, so wider sales on Amazon are part of what that report adds up. (moves the same way; monthly; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Traffic Cameras (Global Intelligence): Region-wide road closures of the kind the cameras show after a major storm keep shoppers and workers home for days, which can show in that month's retail sales. (moves the other way; the month of the event; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Live Trains (Global Intelligence): Carloads of chemicals, metals, building materials and containers track factory output and imported goods moving inland, so a sustained rise or fall in originated carloads tends to show up later in industry and trade data. (moves the same way; weeks; economy scale) Source: Surface Transportation Board, EP 724 rail service data (Class I railroads' weekly filings).
Wildfires & Hurricanes (Global Intelligence): A major landfall cuts that month's sales and output in the affected states, and rebuilding raises construction and car sales afterwards. (either way, depending on the cause; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Transport & Internet (Global Intelligence): Ship arrivals at U.S. ports come ahead of the Census Bureau's monthly import figures, since goods are counted as imports when they clear customs. (moves the same way; weeks; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Trade (goods exports and imports by partner and state).
Migration & Economy (Immigration): Immigrants start businesses at higher rates than the U.S.-born, so faster migration tends to add to new business applications. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (business applications by state).
Visas & Green Cards (Immigration): What business and tourist visitors spend here counts as U.S. service exports (travel), part of the trade balance. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA).
Students (Immigration): Foreign students' tuition and living costs count as U.S. service exports, tens of billions of dollars a year, which narrows the trade deficit. (moves the same way; yearly; economy scale) Source: BEA international services: education-related travel.
Household Finances (Macro): Disposable income is what funds consumer spending, so retail and food-service sales tend to follow its growth and slow when real incomes stall. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA).
Credit & Housing (Macro): Housing starts and permits lead residential construction spending and the furniture, appliance and building-material sales that follow a move. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
SPY History (Markets): Higher stock wealth tends to lift spending by the households that own most of it, a few cents a year per dollar of gains, which shows up in retail sales. (moves the same way; 2-4 quarters; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
Saving & Debt (Personal Finance): When households save a larger share of income, less of it reaches stores and services, so a rising saving rate tends to show up as softer retail sales in the Census business indicators. (moves the other way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Power Board (World Powers): Canada, Mexico, the EU, China, Japan and South Korea are the biggest buyers of U.S. goods, so their economies' size and growth set much of U.S. export demand. (moves the same way; quarters; global scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Trade (goods exports and imports by partner and state).
Leaders & Policy (World Powers): High policy uncertainty tends to delay business investment and hiring (Baker, Bloom and Davis), which shows in orders and new-business data. (moves the other way; months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).