Labor Market
Labor Market is a data page on the Macro desk of Glassbox Auditing. Jobs, unemployment and wages: whether the economy is hiring or cutting back.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- Payrolls rose by 165K jobs in October 2026 — 159.3 million jobs in all (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1% in October 2026 — 4.2% the time before (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)
- Average hourly earnings: 3.1% over 12 months in October 2026 — 3.2% the time before · 3.9% a year earlier (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)
- Labour-force participation: 61.9% in October 2026 — 61.8% the time before (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)
- Initial jobless claims: 189K in the week of 31 Oct, -3.1% on the week — -14.5% on a year earlier (Dept. of Labor, 4 Nov 2026)
- Jobs added a month, 3-month average: +137K in October 2026, +182K on a year earlier — A year earlier -45K · above 36% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Broad unemployment (U-6): 7.9% in October 2026 — above 29% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Construction: employment up 124,000 jobs over 12 months to October 2026 — 8,367,000 jobs on payrolls · seasonally adjusted · the newest two months are preliminary (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Information: employment down 119,000 jobs over 12 months to October 2026 — 2,734,000 jobs on payrolls · seasonally adjusted · the newest two months are preliminary (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Financial activities: employment down 99,000 jobs over 12 months to October 2026 — 9,085,000 jobs on payrolls · seasonally adjusted · the newest two months are preliminary (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Professional and business services: employment up 70,000 jobs in October 2026 — 22,604,000 jobs on payrolls · seasonally adjusted · the newest two months are preliminary (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Health care and social assistance: employment up 55,100 jobs in October 2026 — 24,004,600 jobs on payrolls · seasonally adjusted · the newest two months are preliminary (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Transportation and warehousing: employment up 24,800 jobs in October 2026 — 6,636,100 jobs on payrolls · seasonally adjusted · the newest two months are preliminary (BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- ADP counted 86K private-sector jobs added in October 2026; BLS counted 159K — ADP counts jobs on its own clients' payrolls, so it does not rely on the BLS surveys · Indeed's postings index 103.8 (1 February 2020 = 100) against 100.7 a year earlier (ADP Research Institute and BLS, 30 Oct 2026)
- Continuing jobless claims: 1.72M in the week of 24 Oct, -12.4% on a year earlier — A year earlier 1.96M · above 13% of readings in the last 20 years (Dept. of Labor, 23 Oct 2026)
- Wage growth after inflation: -0.6% in September 2026, -1.4 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 0.8% · above 21% of readings since 2007 (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
- Job openings per unemployed person: 1.06 in September 2026, +0.12 on a year earlier — A year earlier 0.94 · above 72% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
- Layoffs & discharges (JOLTS): 1,641K in September 2026, -9.6% on a year earlier — A year earlier 1,816K · above 15% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
- Job openings (JOLTS): 7.52M in September 2026, +4.9% on a year earlier — A year earlier 7.17M · above 81% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
- Quits rate: 2.1% in September 2026, +0.2 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 1.9% · above 59% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from BLS; Dept. of Labor; ADP Research Institute and BLS. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Household Finances (Macro): Payroll growth and wage gains are the main source of household income, so a hiring slowdown shows up in incomes and, later, in late payments on debt. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Central Banks (World Powers): Jobs are half the Fed's mandate: fast hiring and wage growth tend to keep it from cutting rates, while rising unemployment pushes it to ease. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Report Reactions (Calendar): The monthly jobs report is one of the largest scheduled movers of the 10-year yield and SPY; payrolls far above or below expectations tend to move yields the same way. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Job Listings (Companies): Job openings in the government's JOLTS survey and companies' own career-site listings tend to rise and fall together, and listings show which employers are pulling back first. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; company scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Migration & Economy (Immigration): Strong hiring with few unemployed per opening draws in foreign-born workers, whose share of the labor force is tracked beside immigration flows. (moves the same way; months to years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Prices & Inflation (Macro): Wages are the biggest cost for service businesses, so fast wage growth tends to keep services inflation high. (moves the same way; 6-12 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- US Map (Domestic Intelligence): The national jobless rate is built from the states'; state rates on the map show where a national slowdown or pickup is concentrated. (moves the same way; same month; economy scale) Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (states 1976+, counties 1990+).
- Saving & Debt (Personal Finance): Borrowers fall behind most when jobs are lost: the banks' card delinquency rate rose through 2008 into 2009 as unemployment climbed, so a stronger job market tends to lower the late card balances on Saving & Debt. (moves the other way; quarters; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
What feeds this page?
- Benchmarks (AI): METR measures how long a task, in human working time, AI can finish on its own; as that grows, more software and office work can be automated, which can cut some roles and create others. (either way, depending on the cause; years; economy scale) Source: METR time horizons (via Epoch AI).
- Business & Industry (AI): Firms that adopt AI change which tasks their staff do and, in some cases, how many they hire; Census asks about both, and the effect on jobs shows in BLS data with a lag. (either way, depending on the cause; months to years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey.
- Nation (AI): Productivity growth lets output rise without more hours worked; whether that lifts wages or slows hiring depends on demand, and BLS reads both. (either way, depending on the cause; years; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Signals (Briefing): When several states flag unemployment rising while the labor force shrinks, the national unemployment rate, which is built from the states', tends to be rising too. (moves the same way; same quarter; economy scale) Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (states 1976+, counties 1990+).
- Company Research (Companies): Employers file WARN notices at least 60 days before a mass layoff, so a rise in notices at large employers tends to show in jobless claims and payrolls one to two months later. (moves the other way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: California EDD WARN layoff notices.
- Job Listings (Companies): Open postings lead hiring, so the JOLTS job-openings count and later payroll growth tend to move with them. (moves the same way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- US Map (Domestic Intelligence): State jobless rates add up, weighted by labor force, to the national rate, so a rise concentrated in large states such as California, Texas or New York moves the national figure most. (moves the same way; same month; economy scale) Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (states 1976+, counties 1990+).
- Health Board (Domestic Intelligence): The states' job readings add up to the national labor market, so drags spreading across many states tend to show in the national jobs figures. (moves the same way; same quarter; economy scale) Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (states 1976+, counties 1990+).
- Well-being (Domestic Intelligence): Net migration into a state adds workers and consumers, so states gaining residents from elsewhere tend to add jobs faster than states losing them. (moves the same way; 1-2 years; economy scale) Source: Census Bureau population estimates (components of change).
- Jurisdictions (Domestic Intelligence): QCEW counts nearly every job by county and industry, so a large layoff in a county's main industry reaches the state and national payroll counts. (moves the same way; same quarter; economy scale) Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (jobs by industry).
- State Education (Education): Public schools are the largest group of government employers, so enrolment and school budgets move local government payrolls. (moves the same way; yearly; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Degrees & Colleges (Education): Graduates add skilled workers, and BLS shows lower unemployment and higher pay at each higher level of education. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Education Compared (Education): Employers hire from the skills the school system produces; the U.S. ranks high on adults with degrees but middling on math scores, which shapes the skills new workers bring. (either way, depending on the cause; years; economy scale) Source: OECD Education at a Glance (CC BY 4.0).
- Job Postings (Feed): Job openings come before hires, so a rise in postings across companies tends to show in payroll growth a month or more later; the BLS JOLTS openings count is the official version. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Web Tracking (Feed): Searches for unemployment benefits tend to rise before initial jobless claims do, which is why the jobs-report index here is checked against the BLS data. (moves the same way; 1-4 weeks; economy scale) Source: Google Trends.
- Health (Global Intelligence): An outbreak large enough to close workplaces cuts hours and jobs, as COVID-19 did in spring 2020, when U.S. payrolls fell by more than 20 million in two months. (moves the other way; weeks to months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Disasters (Global Intelligence): A hurricane or flood that shuts businesses across a region can depress that month's payrolls and lift jobless claims there, before rebuilding adds jobs later. (moves the other way; the next monthly report; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Global Data (Global Intelligence): The U.S. population outlook sets how fast the labour force can grow; with births low, most of the projected growth comes from immigration. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Database (population estimates and projections to 2100).
- Migration & Economy (Immigration): Immigrants add to the labour force; when net migration is high, payrolls can grow faster without pulling unemployment down, and when it falls the job growth needed to hold unemployment steady falls too. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Visas & Green Cards (Immigration): Green cards add permanent workers; employment-based cards, capped at about 140,000 a year with dependants, go mostly to people already working here on temporary visas. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.
- H-1B & Talent (Immigration): Approvals track demand for software and engineering workers, so they tend to move with job openings in the information industry (JOLTS). (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Border (Immigration): People released to pursue asylum claims can seek work permits after a waiting period, so the 2022-2024 surge added to labour-force growth in CBO's estimates. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: Congressional Budget Office (budget categories).
- World Comparison (Immigration): CBO projects U.S. deaths to exceed births in the early 2030s, which leaves net migration as the only source of population growth and most of labour-force growth. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: Congressional Budget Office (budget categories).
- Household Finances (Macro): State minimum-wage increases raise pay at the bottom of the scale, which feeds average hourly earnings in the jobs report, most visibly in restaurants and retail. (moves the same way; at each 1 January step; economy scale) Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Wage and Hour Division: state and federal minimum wages (via FRED STTMINWG<state>, FEDMINNFRWG).
- Prices & Inflation (Macro): Workers tend to win cost-of-living raises after prices jump, so wage growth tends to follow inflation with a lag. (moves the same way; 6-12 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Business Activity (Macro): Business applications that plan to pay wages tend to turn into new employers within one to two years, adding jobs. (moves the same way; 4-8 quarters; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (business applications by state).
- Federal Contractors (People & Money): Contract money pays for jobs at the contractors and their suppliers, concentrated around bases and agency hubs in Virginia, Maryland, Texas and California. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: USAspending.gov (U.S. Treasury): federal contracts, grants and loans by recipient.
- Overview (Travel): Busy travel seasons keep airlines, hotels and restaurants hiring; leisure and hospitality payrolls swing more with demand than those of most industries. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Buses (Travel): Many workers without cars commute by city bus, so service cuts, strikes or long detours make jobs harder to reach in the cities affected. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.