Oil Stress

Oil Stress is a data page on the Macro desk of Glassbox Auditing. A score for how tight world oil supply is, built from prices and futures spreads, U.S. stocks, OPEC spare capacity, tanker transits through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, and refining margins, each against its own history and past episodes. Oil feeds fuel, freight, plastics and food, so a squeeze here spreads through prices across the economy.

Last updated: 7 Nov 2026.

What is the latest reading?

US crude imports from Venezuela: 655 as of 1 Aug 2026, -37.7% since Jan 2000. Source: EIA, U.S. crude oil imports by country of origin (monthly, API v2).

What is on this page today?

Oil stress gauge 86/100, -1 on the week — refining 90, shipping 81, supply 87 (EIA, futures exchanges and IMF PortWatch, 7 Nov 2026)
The oil stress score stood at 86.0 of 100 on 8 Nov; its highest reading in an episode on file is 90.8, in 2026 Hormuz (4 Oct) — Peak scores of 6 episodes since 1990 · the score ranks each of the terminal's supply, shipping and refining measures against its own history; 75 is watch and 90 is stressed (EIA and IMF PortWatch, 7 Nov 2026)
News outlets carried 963 reports on oil supply disruptions and policy moves in the 7 days to 8 Nov, against 1,131 in the 7 days before — Reports, not verified events: Refinery strike 299, Tanker attack 179, Chokepoint 166, China buying 98, Pipeline attack 94 · counted only where news searches ran throughout the window (News outlets, 7 Nov 2026)
The diesel refining margin (New York Harbor diesel minus Brent) was $95.54 a barrel on 3 Nov, $37.36 a year earlier — diesel $202.57 and Brent $107.03 a barrel · gasoline stocks 209 million barrels, within the five-year range for the week · refineries ran at 94.5% of capacity (EIA, 2 Nov 2026)
The barrel ledger estimates Gulf oil reaching the market at 19.9 million barrels a day below its pre-war level on 30 Oct — Hormuz carrying 0.14 of its pre-war 20 · Fujairah bypass -0.3 · Yanbu bypass -1.2 · China's tanker imports against 2019-22 -1.5 · U.S. emergency stock release +0.06 (million barrels a day; the bypass, China and release… (IMF PortWatch and EIA, 29 Oct 2026)
U.S. commercial crude stocks stood at 410 million barrels in the week to 30 Oct, below the five-year range for the week — five-year range for the week 421 to 441 million barrels · Cushing 27.2 million barrels, above its range · OPEC spare capacity 0.02 million barrels a day in October 2026 (EIA, 29 Oct 2026)
The U.S. imported 655 thousand barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in August 2026, 1579% more than a year earlier and 30% above the 2018 average — The 2018 average is 505 thousand barrels a day, the last full year before the sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company · barrels imported, not where the proceeds go (EIA (Petroleum Supply Monthly, imports by country of origin), 30 Aug 2026)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from EIA, futures exchanges and IMF PortWatch; EIA and IMF PortWatch; News outlets; EIA; IMF PortWatch and EIA; EIA (Petroleum Supply Monthly, imports by country of origin). Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

Oil to Prices (Macro): Stress in crude supply and refining shows first in wholesale diesel, gasoline and jet prices, the first links of the chain from crude to consumer prices. (moves the same way; weeks to months; economy scale) Source: EIA, daily spot prices (Brent, NY Harbor ULSD, Gulf Coast jet; NYMEX futures to April 2024).
Prices & Inflation (Macro): Crude is the largest cost in a gallon of gasoline, so a crude jump reaches the energy part of CPI within a month or two. (moves the same way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report (stocks, refinery runs, product supplied, trade).
Flights (Travel): Jet fuel is one of an airline's two biggest costs, so tighter crude or jet refining raises carriers' costs and, with a lag, fares. (moves the same way; weeks; sector scale) Source: EIA, daily spot prices (Brent, NY Harbor ULSD, Gulf Coast jet; NYMEX futures to April 2024).
Oil & Tankers (Global Intelligence): When tankers avoid Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb or Suez they sail longer routes around the Cape, tying up ships and lifting tanker rates; tanker owners' shares tend to rise with the stress. (moves the same way; days to weeks; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).
Central Banks (World Powers): Oil shocks lift inflation expectations while slowing growth, which leaves central banks between the two; oil importers' central banks face the hardest trade-off. (either way, depending on the cause; months; global scale) Source: 5-year breakeven inflation (Treasury) and University of Michigan 1-year expectations, via FRED.
Energy Industry (Companies): Tight crude and wide crack spreads raise producers' prices and refiners' margins. (moves the same way; same quarter; sector scale) Source: EIA, daily spot prices (Brent, NY Harbor ULSD, Gulf Coast jet; NYMEX futures to April 2024).
Fuel & Charging (Domestic Intelligence): Tighter crude and refining reach the pump within a few weeks, and diesel first when distillate stocks are low. (moves the same way; 1-3 weeks; economy scale) Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (weekly retail $/gallon).
Fear Gauge (VIX) (Briefing): Oil volatility (OVX), part of the score, often rises alongside the VIX in supply shocks, as investors price the hit to growth and profits. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: FRED, CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVXCLS).

What feeds this page?

World Map (Global Intelligence): Fighting near Hormuz, the Red Sea or the Black Sea slows or reroutes tankers through those passages, which the oil stress reading counts in its shipping part. (moves the same way; days to weeks; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).
Sanctions & Watchlists (Global Intelligence): Sanctions on a large exporter's oil, such as Russia's, Iran's or Venezuela's, put barrels out of Western buyers' reach or raise the cost of moving them, which the oil stress reading counts. (moves the same way; weeks to months; global scale) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (OPEC spare capacity, world supply and demand).
Energy (Global Intelligence): Fewer tankers through the chokepoints, or a struck refinery or pipeline pump station, adds to the shipping, supply and refining parts of the oil stress reading. (moves the same way; same week; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).
Oil & Tankers (Global Intelligence): The chokepoint transits and tanker events here are the shipping inputs of the oil stress reading; fewer transits or more idle laden tankers raise it. (moves the same way; same day; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).
Military & Airspace (Global Intelligence): Naval build-ups and GPS jamming around Hormuz and the Red Sea raise the risk and war-risk insurance cost of a passage, and some tankers wait or reroute, which the oil stress reading counts. (moves the same way; days; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).
Conflict Zones (Global Intelligence): A sustained fall in tanker transits through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb or the Danish Straits is the shipping stress the oil reading counts: cargoes delayed, rerouted or stopped. (moves the same way; days; global scale) Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint transits (satellite AIS).
Organized Violence (Global Intelligence): Fighting in oil-producing countries can halt output: Libya's exports have stopped several times during its civil conflict, taking barrels off the world market. (moves the same way; days to months; global scale) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (OPEC spare capacity, world supply and demand).
All Sources (Global Intelligence): A high stress tally in a large oil producer can come with reported strikes on its oil fields, ports or pipelines, which the oil stress reading counts from the same kind of news reports. (moves the same way; days to weeks; global scale) Source: GDELT DOC API, news reports of oil infrastructure events.
Leaders & Policy (World Powers): Geopolitical risk centred on oil producers (Russia, the Gulf) tends to raise crude prices and tanker rates. (moves the same way; days; global scale) Source: EIA, daily spot prices (Brent, NY Harbor ULSD, Gulf Coast jet; NYMEX futures to April 2024).
Resources & Energy (World Powers): Where crude output is concentrated (the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Russia) and who depends on imports (China, Japan, Europe) sets who is hurt by a supply cut, and OPEC+ spare capacity sets how far prices move. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks; global scale) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (OPEC spare capacity, world supply and demand).
Alliances & Blocs (World Powers): OPEC+ sets its members' output quotas; a cut tends to raise crude prices and an increase to lower them, depending on spare capacity. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks; global scale) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (OPEC spare capacity, world supply and demand).
United Nations (World Powers): UN sanctions on producers (those on Iran were reimposed in September 2025) and Council action on shipping attacks (the Red Sea, 2024) bear on where crude can flow and what insurers charge. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks; global scale) Source: UN Security Council Consolidated Sanctions List.