Oil to Prices
Oil to Prices is a data page on the Macro desk of Glassbox Auditing. How an oil shock travels from crude to what households pay, in six measured stages: crude, wholesale fuel, the pump, freight, producer and material prices, and consumer prices, with the lags past episodes showed. It shows which prices are still catching up to a move in crude, from diesel and freight to food and airfares.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- The closest month-to-month link in the oil-to-prices chain is US retail gasoline (regular) to Consumer prices: gasoline: a correlation of 0.89 at a lag of 0 months since 2000 — Correlations of monthly changes at the best lag from 0 to 12 months · under 0.2 reads as no clear link · history, not a forecast (BLS, EIA and Federal Reserve data (the terminal's calculation), 8 Nov 2026)
- U.S. airline shares returned -8.7% over three months to 6 Nov, tanker shares +17.6% — South Korean shares (EWY) -16.0% and wheat (WEAT) -9.5% · three-month (63-session) returns of the JETS fund, six tanker owners, and the EWY and WEAT funds (NYSE and NYSE Arca daily closes, 5 Nov 2026)
- Brent crude $107.03 a barrel, -13.1% on the week — spot price on 3 Nov (EIA, 3 Nov 2026)
- New York Harbor diesel cost $4.82 a gallon wholesale on 3 Nov, Gulf Coast jet fuel $4.20 and New York Harbor gasoline $2.73 — Diesel $2.46 a year earlier (+96%) · what fuel suppliers pay before taxes and delivery (EIA, 2 Nov 2026)
- Regular gasoline averaged $4.26 a gallon over the last four weeks to 2 Nov, against $3.03 a year earlier — An average household spends about $3,789 a year on gasoline and other energy goods (BEA, 2026 Q3 at an annual rate), about 1,048 gallons at that year's average price: $1,285 a year more at this price than a year earlier (EIA and BEA, 1 Nov 2026)
- Since the 2026 Hormuz episode began in March 2026, Brent is +20% and wholesale fuel +25% — 7 months in · after the 2022 invasion, Brent was -15% twelve months on · each stage's headline series, monthly averages, against the month the episode began · Wholesale fuel +25.2%, At the pump +27.0%, Freight +14.7%… (EIA, BLS and Federal Reserve data (the terminal's calculation), 30 Oct 2026)
- Producer prices for long-distance truckload freight were 17.9% above a year earlier in September 2026 — Producer price indexes for freight, 12-month change: diesel is trucking's second-biggest cost after drivers (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
- Producer prices for farm products were 1.5% above a year earlier in September 2026 — Producer price indexes, 12-month change: what businesses pay for fuel, farm goods, fertilizer, food and lumber · the FAO world food price index +5.8% (September 2026) · import prices +8.1% (September 2026) · Diesel… (BLS and FAO, 29 Sep 2026)
- Grocery prices were 1.8% above a year earlier in September 2026 — Consumer prices, 12-month change: groceries, restaurant meals, airfares, goods and gasoline · 5-year breakeven inflation 2.29% on 6 Nov · households expected 4.6% over the next year (September 2026) (BLS, U.S. Treasury and University of Michigan, 29 Sep 2026)
- Air transportation used $0.092 of petroleum products for every $1 of output in 2025, the most of the 8 industries BEA lists, counting its suppliers' use — Petroleum and coal products per dollar of output, directly and through everything its suppliers use (BEA input-output requirements) (BEA, 30 Dec 2025)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from BLS, EIA and Federal Reserve data (the terminal's calculation); NYSE and NYSE Arca daily closes; EIA; EIA and BEA; EIA, BLS and Federal Reserve data (the terminal's calculation); BLS; BLS and FAO; BLS, U.S. Treasury and University of Michigan. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Prices & Inflation (Macro): The chain ends in consumer prices: gasoline within weeks, then airfares, food away from home and core goods as freight and materials costs pass through. (moves the same way; 1-6 months; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
- Flights (Travel): Airfares in CPI tend to follow jet fuel within a few months, as carriers adjust fares and capacity. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; sector scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
- Household Finances (Macro): Fuel is a hard-to-cut cost for most households, so a pump-price rise leaves less for other spending, most in rural and lower-income states where people drive more. (moves the other way; weeks; economy scale) Source: BEA personal consumption: gasoline and other energy goods; Census households, via FRED.
- Auto & Energy (Companies): Higher pump prices shift car buyers toward fuel-efficient, hybrid and electric models and away from large trucks and SUVs, changing automakers' sales mix. (either way, depending on the cause; months; sector scale) Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (weekly retail $/gallon).
- Commodities (Global Intelligence): Energy is a large part of farming and food costs through fuel, fertilizer and transport, so oil moves feed world food prices. (moves the same way; 3-12 months; global scale) Source: FAO Food Price Index.
- Economies & Debt (World Powers): Korea imports nearly all its oil, so a supply-driven jump in Brent raises its import bill and tends to weigh on its economy and stocks. (moves the other way; weeks to months; global scale) Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes: sector SPDR ETFs, SPY, IWM, QQQ, EWY, KRE, EZU, EWQ, TLT, WEAT (wheat), BNO (Brent).
What feeds this page?
- Today (Briefing): The oil price on Today is the first stage of the chain from crude to consumer prices; a move that lasts reaches the pump within weeks and other prices over months. (moves the same way; weeks to months; economy scale) Source: EIA, daily spot prices (Brent, NY Harbor ULSD, Gulf Coast jet; NYMEX futures to April 2024).
- Fuel & Charging (Domestic Intelligence): Diesel is one of trucking's two largest costs, so higher diesel prices feed truckload freight rates and, through them, the prices of goods moved by road. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: BLS producer price indexes for freight (truckload, LTL, rail, deep-sea, air) and the Cass Freight Index, via FRED.
- Commodities (Global Intelligence): Farm commodities are a small share of what a shopper pays for food, with processing, transport and retail making up the rest, so a grain spike reaches grocery prices only partly and with a lag. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: USDA ERS Food Dollar Series (industry group shares of the food dollar).
- Oil & Tankers (Global Intelligence): Longer routes round the Cape and tankers held as floating storage tie up ships, which tends to raise tanker charter rates and tanker owners' shares. (moves the same way; days to weeks; sector scale) Source: Yahoo Finance, tanker shipping shares (FRO, DHT, INSW, TNK, STNG, TRMD).
- Natural Gas (Macro): Natural gas is the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, so gas prices feed the fertilizer and farm producer prices traced from energy to food. (moves the same way; months; sector scale) Source: BLS producer price indexes: diesel fuel, farm products, fertilizer, processed foods, via FRED.
- Oil Stress (Macro): Stress in crude supply and refining shows first in wholesale diesel, gasoline and jet prices, the first links of the chain from crude to consumer prices. (moves the same way; weeks to months; economy scale) Source: EIA, daily spot prices (Brent, NY Harbor ULSD, Gulf Coast jet; NYMEX futures to April 2024).