Leaders & Policy
Leaders & Policy is a data page on the World Powers desk of Glassbox Auditing. Who has run each country since 1969, their party, what happened to the economy, debt, rates and markets on their watch, and how much policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk are moving markets. Policy shocks tend to delay business investment and raise market volatility.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- France has had 27 prime ministers since 1969, one every 2.1 years — Holders of the second office (prime minister or premier) of the countries where it matters for policy: France 27 prime ministers; Taiwan 25 premiers; Russia 15 prime ministers; China 7 premiers; Saudi Arabia 6 prime… (Wikidata (office holders), 7 Nov 2026)
- China: the Chinese Communist Party has held the top office 100% of the time since 1969 — Each country's longest-ruling party since 20 January 1969, as a share of the time; next Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (92%) (Wikidata (office holders), 7 Nov 2026)
- Donald J. Trump (second term) has signed 166 executive orders a year, the most of any president since Nixon — 292 orders in 1.8 years so far · Joseph R. Biden signed 41 a year · Final Gallup approval: Obama 59%, Trump 34%, Biden 40% (American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), 6 Nov 2026)
- Geopolitical risk index (world): 151 in October 2026, higher than 91% of months since 1985; the 12 months before averaged 175 (Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index, 30 Oct 2026)
- U.S. economic policy uncertainty: 188 in October 2026, higher than 95% of months since 1900; the 12 months before averaged 298 (Baker, Bloom and Davis, Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, 30 Oct 2026)
- Financial regulation is the policy area U.S. newspapers are most uncertain about: higher than 99% of months since 1985 — Percentile of each policy area's 3-month average against its own months since 1985, through Sep 2026; 3-month average 559 against 114 on average since 1985 (Baker, Bloom and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty index, 29 Sep 2026)
- India's economy has grown fastest of the tracked powers while its current leader has been in office: 6.2% a year since 2014, under Narendra Modi — Average real GDP growth over the calendar years each of today's leaders held office for at least half the year, to 2025; leaders in office under two years are left out. Slowest of the 9: Mexico 0.6% under Claudia… (World Bank World Development Indicators (office dates: Wikidata), 30 Dec 2025)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from Wikidata (office holders); American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara); Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index; Baker, Bloom and Davis, Economic Policy Uncertainty Index; Baker, Bloom and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty index; World Bank World Development Indicators (office dates: Wikidata). Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Fear Gauge (VIX) (Briefing): Spikes in economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk tend to coincide with higher option-implied volatility on the S&P 500. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: Cboe VIX index data (daily history and delayed quotes).
- Business Activity (Macro): High policy uncertainty tends to delay business investment and hiring (Baker, Bloom and Davis), which shows in orders and new-business data. (moves the other way; months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Tariffs & Government (Macro): Tariff rates rest on the sitting U.S. president's orders as much as on law, so a change of leader or policy changes what importers pay. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks; economy scale) Source: USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule.
- Oil Stress (Macro): Geopolitical risk centred on oil producers (Russia, the Gulf) tends to raise crude prices and tanker rates. (moves the same way; days; global scale) Source: EIA, daily spot prices (Brent, NY Harbor ULSD, Gulf Coast jet; NYMEX futures to April 2024).
- Energy & Materials (Macro): Higher geopolitical risk tends to lift gold, a traditional haven, and central banks outside the U.S. camp have added gold to their reserves. (moves the same way; days; global scale) Source: Yahoo Finance prices.
- Lawmaking (Domestic Intelligence): A U.S. president's executive orders, recorded by the National Archives, are the fastest route from a leader's policy to rules businesses must follow. (moves the same way; weeks; economy scale) Source: National Archives, executive orders disposition tables.
What feeds this page?
- Election Outlook (Domestic Intelligence): U.S. control decides tariff, sanctions and aid policy toward other countries, and trade partners' currencies such as the Mexican peso have moved sharply on U.S. election nights (2016, 2024). (either way, depending on the cause; election night; global scale) Source: Yahoo Finance prices.
- Social Media (Feed): Leaders' posts on tariffs, sanctions and conflicts get reported, and newspaper coverage of policy changes is what the policy-uncertainty index on Leaders & Policy counts. (either way, depending on the cause; days; global scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Polymarket (Markets): Polymarket's politics and geopolitics markets price leadership changes, ceasefires and sanctions; sharp moves there tend to arrive with the policy-uncertainty readings on Leaders & Policy. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; global scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Institutions & Leaders (People & Money): The major think tanks publish foreign-policy, trade and defense proposals, and their leaders often serve in the State Department, Treasury or National Security Council, carrying those positions into policy abroad. (either way, depending on the cause; years; global scale) Source: Wikidata.
- Epstein Records (People & Money): Disclosures have reached other governments, as when the UK dismissed its ambassador to Washington in September 2025 after his emails with Epstein were published. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks; global scale) Source: House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: Epstein investigation transcripts and estate productions.