Elections & Polls
Elections & Polls is a data page on the World Powers desk of Glassbox Auditing. Upcoming national elections, today's poll averages and every national result since 1969 for the U.S., its allies and partners, and Russia. A change of government can change tax, spending, trade and regulation, and markets reprice on the result.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- Australia: ALP ahead of ONP by 0.4 pts in the polls, 1.5 pts 2-3 months earlier — Next Australian federal election, by 23 Sep 2028 · ALP 26.5% vs ONP 26.1% · average of 10 polls, the latest on 7 Nov (National pollsters, 6 Nov 2026)
- Germany: AfD ahead of Union by 8.5 pts in the polls, 7.5 pts 2-3 months earlier — Next German federal election, by 25 Mar 2029 · AfD 28.2% vs Union 19.7% · average of 19 polls, the latest on 6 Nov (National pollsters, 5 Nov 2026)
- France: Marine Le Pen ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 15.8 pts in the polls, 17.7 pts 2-3 months earlier — 2027 French presidential election, 18 Apr 2027 · Marine Le Pen 32.6% vs Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.8% · average of 13 polls, the latest on 5 Nov (National pollsters, 4 Nov 2026)
- Italy: Coalitions CSX ahead of Coalitions CDX by 1.1 pts in the polls, 2.9 pts 2-3 months earlier — Next Italian general election, by 22 Dec 2027 · Coalitions CSX 43.8% vs Coalitions CDX 42.7% · average of 29 polls, the latest on 5 Nov (National pollsters, 4 Nov 2026)
- United States: Harris (D) ahead of Buttigieg (D) by 4.5 pts in the polls, -0.9 pts 2-3 months earlier — 2028 United States presidential election, 7 Nov 2028 · Harris (D) 48.0% vs Buttigieg (D) 43.5% · average of 10 polls, the latest on 5 Nov (National pollsters, 4 Nov 2026)
- United Kingdom: Lab ahead of Con by 6.4 pts in the polls, 6.0 pts 2-3 months earlier — Next United Kingdom general election, by 15 Aug 2029 · Lab 28.4% vs Con 22.0% · average of 23 polls, the latest on 4 Nov (National pollsters, 3 Nov 2026)
- 2026 United States House of Representatives elections: Republican Party first — Election · Runner-up: Democratic Party (Election authorities, 2 Nov 2026)
- United States, next presidential election: Harris (D) moved ahead of Buttigieg (D) in the poll average — Poll lead · Harris (D) 48.1% vs Buttigieg (D) 43.5% (last 30 days) (National pollsters, 27 Oct 2026)
- 2026 Israeli legislative election: Likud first — Election · Runner-up: Together (Election authorities, 26 Oct 2026)
- 2025 Canadian federal election was decided by 2.4 points between the top two, the tightest of the 11 countries' latest national elections on file — Liberal 43.8% against Conservative 41.3% (vote shares of the largest party or winning candidate and the runner-up; seats can differ) (National election results (compiled by Wikipedia), 26 Oct 2026)
- Mexico: Morena ahead of PAN by 27.0 pts in the polls, 24.3 pts 2-3 months earlier — 2027 Mexican legislative election, 6 Jun 2027 · Morena 40.4% vs PAN 13.4% · average of 10 polls, the latest on 26 Oct (National pollsters, 25 Oct 2026)
- South Korea: DPK ahead of PPP by 6.6 pts in the polls, 12.0 pts 2-3 months earlier — Next South Korean legislative election, by 12 Apr 2028 · DPK 39.2% vs PPP 32.6% · average of 10 polls, the latest on 30 Sep (National pollsters, 29 Sep 2026)
- Germany's parties disclosed 277% of their five-year average in private donations in 2025, the biggest swing of the 4 countries that publish them — EUR 23.7 million, EUR 18.7 million the year before. Bars: each country's latest full year as a share of its own average for the five years before (100 = the average); a level of giving, neither good nor bad, and each… (National electoral regulators (UK Electoral Commission, Elections Canada, AEC, Bundestag), 30 Dec 2025)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from National pollsters; Election authorities; National election results (compiled by Wikipedia); National electoral regulators (UK Electoral Commission, Elections Canada, AEC, Bundestag). Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Polymarket (Markets): Prediction markets trade on national election outcomes, and a shift in the poll averages tends to move those odds within hours. (moves the same way; same day; global scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
- Election Outlook (Domestic Intelligence): U.S. national elections decide who sets tax, spending and trade policy; the Election Outlook page carries the forecasters' ratings and markets race by race. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: Wikipedia election pages: races, forecasters' ratings, polls (CC BY-SA).
- Fear Gauge (VIX) (Briefing): Option-implied volatility tends to rise into close or contested elections in large economies and fall once the result is known. (moves the same way; weeks; economy scale) Source: Cboe VIX index data (daily history and delayed quotes).
- Economies & Debt (World Powers): A winner's program can change a country's deficit path, and bond markets reprice its debt on the result, as French yields did around the 2024 snap election. (either way, depending on the cause; days to months; global scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Political Money (People & Money): Close U.S. races draw the most campaign money; FEC filings show the donors and committees behind each side. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: OpenFEC API (itemised contributions, candidate totals, election dates).
What feeds this page?
- World Comparison (Immigration): Migration is a leading election issue across Europe and North America, and parties campaigning for lower immigration have gained in recent national votes. (either way, depending on the cause; months; global scale) Source: Wikipedia election pages: races, forecasters' ratings, polls (CC BY-SA).
- Political Money (People & Money): Party donations in the UK, Canada, Australia and Germany fund the campaigns in the elections on Elections & Polls, each reported under its own country's disclosure threshold. (either way, depending on the cause; election cycle; global scale) Source: UK Electoral Commission donations to parties (contains Electoral Commission Information © Electoral Commission and/or database right, OGL v3.0).