Macro
Today's Macro items on the public record: CPI (consumer prices): out Tuesday 10 Nov; PPI (producer prices): out Friday 13 Nov; GDPNow, this quarter's growth…
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- CPI (consumer prices): out Tuesday 10 Nov — Inflation: what households pay · Kalshi median for inflation this month: 0.3% (last 0.6%) (BLS, 10 Nov 2026)
- PPI (producer prices): out Friday 13 Nov — Inflation in the pipeline (BLS, 13 Nov 2026)
- GDPNow, this quarter's growth estimate: 3.44% in Q4 2026, -0.80 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 4.24% · above 77% of readings since 2011 (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 30 Dec 2026)
- 2027 standard deduction, married couples filing jointly: $33,200 — Subtracted from income before federal tax is figured; up $1,000 from $32,200 for 2026 (IRS, 31 Dec 2026)
- Monthly Treasury Statement: out Thursday 12 Nov — The deficit: receipts and outlays (U.S. Treasury, 12 Nov 2026)
- 2027 federal income tax: the 37% bracket starts at $661,375 of taxable income for single filers, 3.2% above 2026 — Where each rate starts, single filers; married couples filing jointly reach 37% at $793,650 · bracket thresholds rose 3.2% to 3.2% on 2026; only income inside a band is taxed at its rate (IRS, 31 Dec 2026)
- 2027 standard deduction, single filers: $16,600 — Subtracted from income before federal tax is figured; up $500 from $16,100 for 2026 (IRS, 31 Dec 2026)
- Social Security cost-of-living raise for 2027: 3.6% — Effective January 2027; 2.8% the year before; July to September CPI-W against the last raise's base (BLS CPI-W, SSA formula, 31 Dec 2026)
- Jobless claims (weekly): out Thursday 12 Nov — Layoffs, week by week (Dept. of Labor, 12 Nov 2026)
- A single filer with $100,000 of wages pays 12.9% of it in federal income tax in 2027; the next dollar is taxed at 22% — Effective rate by wages, standard deduction, no children or other income, against 13.2% at the same wages in 2026 · married filing jointly 7.5% at $100,000 (IRS, 31 Dec 2026)
- Overnight reverse repo at the Fed: $0.1B, down 98.6% in a year — A year earlier: $10.8B (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 5 Nov 2026)
- Payrolls rose by 165K jobs in October 2026 — 159.3 million jobs in all (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1% in October 2026 — 4.2% the time before (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)
- Average hourly earnings: 3.1% over 12 months in October 2026 — 3.2% the time before · 3.9% a year earlier (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)
- Treasury option volatility (MOVE) closed at 92.77 on 6 Nov, above 69% of days since 2005 — 12.43 points lower than a month earlier · 3-month high 113.60 on 5 Oct · MOVE measures how much traders expect Treasury yields to swing over the next month (ICE Data Indices, 5 Nov 2026)
- Yield curve, 10-year minus 3-month: 0.67 pts on 6 Nov, +0.49 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 0.18 pts · above 33% of readings in the last 20 years (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5 Nov 2026)
- The 5-year breakeven inflation rate was 2.29% on 6 Nov, the 10-year Treasury yield 4.84% — 2.37% a month earlier · households expected 4.6% inflation over the next year (Michigan survey, September 2026) · gold $4,075 an ounce on 6 Nov, -2.7% on a month earlier (U.S. Treasury, University of Michigan and COMEX, 5 Nov 2026)
- Yield curve, 10-year minus 2-year: 0.35 pts on 6 Nov, -0.19 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 0.54 pts · above 28% of readings in the last 20 years (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5 Nov 2026)
- 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.23% on 6 Nov, -0.05 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 2.28% · above 55% of readings in the last 20 years (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5 Nov 2026)
- Labour-force participation: 61.9% in October 2026 — 61.8% the time before (BLS, 5 Nov 2026)