Markets
Today's Markets items on the public record: Risk Monitor: 9 of 38 measures read stressed, 12 on watch; OpenAI had no public S-1 on EDGAR as of 8 Nov; it said…
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- Risk Monitor: 9 of 38 measures read stressed, 12 on watch — Stressed: Near-term vs 3-month fear (VIX curve) 1.04; Big Tech money promised off the books $3.82T; Total federal debt (incl. intragovernmental) as a % of GDP 121.2%; Corporate income taxes vs last year -16% and 5 more… (SEC filings, U.S. Treasury and BEA, BEA + 3 more, 8 Nov 2026)
- OpenAI had no public S-1 on EDGAR as of 8 Nov; it said in June 2026 that a confidential draft went to the SEC — last closed round $852B post-money, 31 Mar (company claim, OpenAI) · round in talks: up to $30B at $1.25T pre-money (reported, CNBC), first reported at $1.4T (reported, Bloomberg) · CFO named 2027 to staff (reported… (OpenAI, SEC EDGAR, CNBC, Bloomberg, 7 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd puts the Fed's 9 Dec decision at 22% hold, 76% hike and 1% cut — Each outcome's chance, scaled to add up to 100% · the most likely decision leads · what traders expect, not a forecast (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects inflation this month (CPI, month over month): 0.3%, due 10 Nov — last reading 0.6% (Sep 2026) · middle half of guesses 0.2% to 0.3% · most likely 0.3% (44%) · higher than 41% of the last 5 years' readings · 1,216,424 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects core inflation this month (CPI ex food & energy): 0.2%, due 10 Nov — last reading 0.3% (Sep 2026) · middle half of guesses 0.2% to 0.3% · most likely 0.2% (46%) · higher than 9% of the last 5 years' readings · 910,382 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects inflation over 12 months (CPI, year over year): 3.8%, due 10 Dec — last reading 3.7% (Sep 2026) · middle half of guesses 3.7% to 3.9% · most likely 3.8% (24%) · higher than 63% of the last 5 years' readings · 742,837 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects jobs added (nonfarm payrolls): 76K jobs, due 4 Dec — last reading 165K jobs (Oct 2026) · middle half of guesses 50K jobs to 98K jobs · most likely about 75K jobs (27%) · higher than 33% of the last 5 years' readings · 10,554 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects economic growth (real GDP, annualized): 3.1%, due 28 Jan 2027 — last reading 3.4% (Jul 2026) · middle half of guesses 2.2% to 3.8% · most likely about 3.2% (22%) · higher than 60% of the last 5 years' readings · 64,279 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Settled big positions that matched the insider pattern won 30% of the time (42 of 138), against 40% as the average price paid — watch-list positions 60% (145 of 242) · all other big positions 83% (4328 of 5227) · a price is the crowd's chance, so winning less often than it was priced means the bets did worse than the crowd expected · a pattern… (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- Options expiry on Friday 20 Nov: on past ones the S&P 500 moved a median 0.46% either way, against 0.50% on other sessions — Closed up on 52% of the 80 past dates, against 55% of other sessions · the session after was up 57% of the time · S&P 500 index closes from 8 Nov 2016 to 6 Nov · history, not a forecast · The third Friday, or the… (Cboe and OCC expiration rules (dates); S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P 500 daily closes), 19 Nov 2026)
- Quad witching and index rebalance on Friday 18 Dec: on past ones the S&P 500 moved a median 0.49% either way, against 0.50% on other sessions — Closed up on 35% of the 40 past dates, against 55% of other sessions · the session after was up 57% of the time · S&P 500 index closes from 8 Nov 2016 to 6 Nov · history, not a forecast · Stock options, index options… (Cboe and OCC expiration rules (dates); S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P 500 daily closes), 17 Dec 2026)
- The Fed's 9 Dec decision on three exchanges: hike 0.25 pts at 75% on Kalshi, 75% on Polymarket US, 77% on Polymarket — The exchanges agree within 5 points on every outcome · each exchange's chances are scaled to add up to 100%; different crowds with different money (Kalshi · Polymarket US · Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- VIX expiry on Wednesday 18 Nov: on past ones the S&P 500 moved a median 0.46% either way, against 0.50% on other sessions — Closed up on 47% of the 120 past dates, against 55% of other sessions · the session after was up 46% of the time · S&P 500 index closes from 8 Nov 2016 to 6 Nov · history, not a forecast · Cboe: the Wednesday 30 days… (Cboe and OCC expiration rules (dates); S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P 500 daily closes), 17 Nov 2026)
- 45 big Polymarket positions in the last 7 days matched the insider pattern, $2.22M staked — 128 more show enough of its traits to watch, $4.75M staked · positions of $5,000 or more on finance and government questions; the bars are the five questions with the largest stakes · traits: a new wallet, few markets… (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- Stock markets next close for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday 26 Nov — Veterans Day: bond market closed, stocks open Wednesday 11 Nov · Day after Thanksgiving: 1 pm close Friday 27 Nov (NYSE and SIFMA holiday calendars, 25 Nov 2026)
- The largest order waiting on Polymarket US is $130,761 to sell yes (the same as buying no) on “2028 Republican Presidential Nominee: Vivek Ramaswamy” at 2¢ — Resting orders of $10,000 or more in the order books, the five largest · someone has money committed at that price; the exchange names no one · each book is read about hourly (Polymarket US, 8 Nov 2026)
- Polymarket's top traders this month made $1.17M (Politics), $256,665 (Economy), $178,864 (Finance) — Profit this month of the first-ranked trader on each of Polymarket's own leaderboards, gains not yet cashed in included · the top ten on each board made $8.22M (Politics), $845,506 (Economy), $954,031 (Finance) together… (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- “Build Your Map: AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX: Democrats sweep all 7” traded 2,738,654 contracts over the last day, the most on Polymarket US — Contracts traded between each market's latest order-book reading and the one about 24 hours earlier, the five busiest · where news is being traded (Polymarket US, 8 Nov 2026)
- The SEC's crypto enforcement list has 14 dated entries for 2024 up to 10 Oct 2024, 35 for 2023 — Its busiest year is 2023 with 35 entries · SEC litigation releases of any kind: 287 in 2024, 314 in 2023 · The SEC last reviewed the page on 24 Apr 2025, so later actions are not on it · One dated line can hold several… (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Crypto Assets enforcement list; litigation releases), 8 Nov 2026)
- Dollar stablecoins in circulation: $294B on 8 Nov, 3.4% below a year earlier — Tether (USDT) $177B, 3.6% below a year earlier · USD Coin (USDC) $70.7B, 6.3% below a year earlier · 4.4% below its level 30 days earlier · Coins pegged to the dollar, circulating supply as DefiLlama counts it, on the… (DefiLlama (stablecoins), 7 Nov 2026)