Risk Monitor
Risk Monitor is a data page on the Briefing desk of Glassbox Auditing. Stress rarely starts everywhere at once. Seeing credit, rates, volatility and the economy on one board shows which part is strained first, before it reaches stock prices.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- Risk Monitor: 9 of 38 measures read stressed, 12 on watch — Stressed: Near-term vs 3-month fear (VIX curve) 1.04; Big Tech money promised off the books $3.82T; Total federal debt (incl. intragovernmental) as a % of GDP 121.2%; Corporate income taxes vs last year -16% and 5 more… (SEC filings, U.S. Treasury and BEA, BEA + 3 more, 8 Nov 2026)
- AI supply-chain revenue growth (2026 Q2): +36% — Calm · STRENGTHENING (+14 pts vs the 4 quarters before); UNUSUALLY STRONG, rank 100 of 100 in its history; 1 of 14 layers slowing (SEC filings, 8 Nov 2026)
- Big Tech money promised off the books: $3.82T — Stressed · 3.3× the $1.16T of debt they report · operating cash flow a year: $1.37T (2.8 years of it) · contracted backlog: $2.98T at the 33 that report it · largest: GOOGL $1.06T, META $817B, NVDA $442B · 53 companies… (SEC filings, 8 Nov 2026) GOOGL META NVDA
- Barrels of oil one ounce of gold buys: 45 — Stressed · above its usual range (normal 15-25) · gold -5% and oil +18% over 3 months · gold (inflation-adjusted) -22% vs its Feb 2026 peak · data: 6 Nov 2026 (COMEX and NYMEX, 5 Nov 2026)
- Emergency oil reserve (SPR): 282M barrels — Stressed · lowest since Oct 1982 · -127M bbl in a year · data: week ending 30 Oct 2026 (EIA, 29 Oct 2026)
- Corporate income taxes vs last year: -16% — Stressed · individual income taxes +7% · payroll +4% · corporate profits after tax (BEA) +27% on a year (fiscal year to date vs last year) · data: through 30 Sep 2026 (U.S. Treasury (Monthly Treasury Statement), 29 Sep 2026)
- Total federal debt (incl. intragovernmental) as a % of GDP: 121.2% — Stressed · highest since Jan 2026 · higher than 97% of the past 60 years · data: 2026 Q2 (U.S. Treasury and BEA, 29 Jun 2026)
- Corporate profits after tax, vs a year earlier: +26.6% — Calm · $4.28T a year at the latest quarter's rate · 12-month change higher than 91% of the past 20 years · data: 2026 Q2 (BEA, 29 Jun 2026)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from SEC filings, U.S. Treasury and BEA, BEA + 3 more; SEC filings; COMEX and NYMEX; EIA; U.S. Treasury (Monthly Treasury Statement); U.S. Treasury and BEA; BEA. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Fear Gauge (VIX) (Briefing): Stress spreading across the board's areas tends to come with a higher VIX, as investors pay more for protection against falling stocks; the VIX is also one of the board's Stocks readings. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Cboe VIX index data (daily history and delayed quotes).
- Credit & Housing (Macro): When stress spreads across markets, jobs and banks, banks tend to tighten lending, so loan growth slows. (moves the other way; 1-2 quarters; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve H.8 (bank assets & liabilities).
- Bond Issuance (Companies): In stressed markets credit spreads widen and weaker companies tend to delay bond sales, while the strongest borrowers keep issuing. (moves the other way; weeks; company scale) Source: SEC EDGAR filings (10-Q/10-K text).
- Energy & Materials (Macro): In broad stress money tends to move into gold and Treasuries, the shift the board's Safe havens area reads. (moves the same way; days to weeks; sector scale) Source: Yahoo Finance prices.
- Central Banks (World Powers): Broad financial stress tends to bring central banks to cut rates or lend to banks, as the Fed did in 2008, 2020 and March 2023, unless inflation holds them back. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks to months; global scale) Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 (the Fed's balance sheet).
What feeds this page?
- Fear Gauge (VIX) (Briefing): The VIX and its curve are Stocks readings on the Risk Monitor (20+ watch, 30+ stressed), so a spike raises that area's level. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Cboe VIX index data (daily history and delayed quotes).
- Bond Issuance (Companies): Issuance stalls when credit spreads jump, so a heavy calendar tends to come with calm credit gauges on the Risk Monitor and a drought with stressed ones. (moves the other way; weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- All Sources (Global Intelligence): When conflict, disaster and outage reports pile up in oil producers, shipping lanes or chip-making countries, the energy, supply-chain and safe-haven gauges on the Risk Monitor tend to follow. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), aggregated weekly event counts by first-level administrative region (Open myACLED files).
- Energy & Materials (Macro): Gold outpacing stocks is what the Risk Monitor's Safe havens area reads as money hiding rather than chasing growth. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Yahoo Finance prices.
- Live Now (Markets): A sharp SPY fall usually lifts the VIX and can invert its curve, two of the Risk Monitor's stock-market gauges, so a large down day tends to move its Stocks row toward Watch or Stressed. (moves the other way; same day; economy scale) Source: Cboe VIX index data (daily history and delayed quotes).
- SPY History (Markets): Leveraged funds' net position in VIX futures, published each Friday, shows whether fast money leans toward calm or toward swings; the Risk Monitor's VIX curve gauge reads the same volatility market. (either way, depending on the cause; weekly; economy scale) Source: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (E-mini Russell 2000, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500; 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, Ultra 10-year, bond and Ultra bond Treasuries; 3-month SOFR; VIX; U.S. dollar index; yen; euro).
- Options (Markets): When near-dated index options price higher than three-month ones, the VIX curve inverts, and the Risk Monitor's VIX curve gauge reads Stressed while it stays inverted. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Cboe VIX index data (daily history and delayed quotes).
- Kalshi (Markets): The Risk Monitor carries two Kalshi readings: the crowd's year-end SPY range with its odds of a 10%+ fall, and the odds of each move at the next Fed meeting. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- Every Ticker (Options): When most companies' put/call ratios sit above their own norms at once, hedging is broad, the backdrop in which the Risk Monitor's VIX gauges tend to read Watch or Stressed. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Cboe VIX index data (daily history and delayed quotes).
- Big Tech Map (Options): The top ten companies' weight in the S&P 500 is a Risk Monitor gauge, and most of them are Big Tech, so a group-wide downside lean in their options bears on that concentration. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: State Street, SPY daily holdings.