Credit & Housing
Credit & Housing is a data page on the Macro desk of Glassbox Auditing. Borrowing, bank lending and the housing market.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- 30-year mortgage rate: 7.2% in the week of 5 Nov — 7.2% the time before · 6.2% a year earlier (Freddie Mac, 4 Nov 2026)
- U.S. Google searches for "help with my mortgage" stood at 80 in October 2026, the most of any month since Google's record begins in 2004 — 37 a year earlier · the housing-crisis peak was 38 in February 2009 · household debt service 11.1% of income in 2026 Q2, lower than 78% of the past 20 years · 1.42% of bank loans delinquent in 2026 Q2 (-0.07 pts on a… (Google Trends; Federal Reserve, 30 Oct 2026)
- Lent & invested beyond deposits: $225B in the week of 28 Oct, -41.5% on a year earlier — A year earlier $385B · above 35% of readings in the last 20 years (Federal Reserve Board, 27 Oct 2026)
- Borrowed from the Fed: $10B in the week of 28 Oct, +19.5% on a year earlier — A year earlier $8B · above 57% of readings in the last 20 years (Federal Reserve Board, 27 Oct 2026)
- Banks had $2.11T of loans outstanding to non-bank lenders in the week of 28 Oct, 19.8% more than a year earlier — Loans to private-credit funds, finance companies and other nondepository financial institutions, all U.S. commercial banks · $1.76T a year earlier (Federal Reserve Board (H.8, assets and liabilities of commercial banks), 27 Oct 2026)
- Loans ÷ deposits: 71.8% in the week of 28 Oct, +0.4 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 71.4% · above 31% of readings in the last 20 years (Federal Reserve Board, 27 Oct 2026)
- Housing starts: 1,221K in September 2026, -5.2% on the month — -7.4% on a year earlier (Census, 26 Oct 2026)
- Building permits: 1,398K in September 2026, -0.4% on the month — -3.2% on a year earlier (Census, 26 Oct 2026)
- Net +1.7% of banks tightened standards on loans to large and middle-market firms and +5.1% on loans to small firms in the October 2026 survey — Banks tightening minus banks easing, as a share of those answering; below zero means more banks eased · +6.5% for large and middle-market firms in the survey a year earlier (Federal Reserve Board (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey), 30 Sep 2026)
- Bank loans and leases: 7.9% over 12 months in October 2026 — 7.7% the time before · 5.0% a year earlier (Federal Reserve (H.8), 30 Sep 2026)
- New single-family home sales, annual rate: 676K in Sep 2026, -0.6% on the month — -5.3% on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
- Median price of new homes sold: $400,400 in Sep 2026, -3.9% on a year earlier — Not seasonally adjusted, so set against a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
- Typical U.S. home value: $366,157 in Sep 2026, +1.2% on a year earlier — $361,859 a year earlier · Zillow Home Value Index, all homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted (Zillow Research, 29 Sep 2026)
- Months' supply of new homes: 8.4 months in Sep 2026, -0.1 pts on the month — +0.2 pts on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
- Home-ownership rate: 65.4% in Q3 2026, +0.2 pts on the quarter — +0.2 pts on a year earlier (Census Bureau, 29 Sep 2026)
- Typical U.S. market rent, a month: $1,932 in Sep 2026, +2.7% on a year earlier — $1,881 a year earlier · Zillow Observed Rent Index, single-family, condo and multi-family, smoothed (Zillow Research, 29 Sep 2026)
- Median U.S. home sale price: $393,895 in Sep 2026, +1.3% on a year earlier — $389,000 a year earlier · Redfin, all residential property, 30-day periods (Redfin, 29 Sep 2026)
- Homes sold: 282,433 homes in September 2026, 4.3% below the same month a year earlier — September 2019: 352,862 · Redfin's national monthly file, all residential property, not seasonally adjusted (Redfin (Data Center, national housing market), 29 Sep 2026)
- Inventory: 1,159,706 homes in September 2026, 3.7% above the same month a year earlier — September 2019: 1,199,781 · Redfin's national monthly file, all residential property, not seasonally adjusted (Redfin (Data Center, national housing market), 29 Sep 2026)
- Median days on market: 51 days in September 2026, 2 days longer than a year earlier — September 2019: 53 · Redfin's national monthly file, all residential property, not seasonally adjusted (Redfin (Data Center, national housing market), 29 Sep 2026)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from Freddie Mac; Google Trends; Federal Reserve; Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Board (H.8, assets and liabilities of commercial banks); Census; Federal Reserve Board (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey); Federal Reserve (H.8); Census Bureau. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Company (Companies): Higher 30-year mortgage rates cut what buyers can afford, which tends to slow new-home sales and builders' orders. (moves the other way; 1-2 quarters; company scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Household Finances (Macro): Homes are the largest asset of most households below the top 10%, so rising home prices lift their net worth in the Fed's distributional accounts. (moves the same way; quarters; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts.
- Prices & Inflation (Macro): Shelter is about a third of CPI and follows market rents and home prices with a lag of about a year, so housing costs feed inflation slowly. (moves the same way; about a year; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Business Activity (Macro): Housing starts and permits lead residential construction spending and the furniture, appliance and building-material sales that follow a move. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators (retail, durable goods, construction, housing, business formation, inventories, trade).
- US Map (Domestic Intelligence): Mortgage rates and bank lending set how many home-purchase loans are made; the loan counts by state on the map show where a slowdown or pickup lands. (moves the same way; same year; economy scale) Source: CFPB HMDA Data Browser (home-purchase mortgages).
- Company Reports (Calendar): Loan growth, deposit costs and delinquencies here are what banks report each quarter; regional banks lean most on deposits and commercial real estate loans. (moves the same way; the next quarterly report; sector scale) Source: Federal Reserve H.8 (bank assets & liabilities).
What feeds this page?
- Today (Briefing): The 30-year mortgage rate tends to track the 10-year yield plus a spread, so a lasting move in the yield on Today reaches home-loan rates within days. (moves the same way; days; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Risk Monitor (Briefing): When stress spreads across markets, jobs and banks, banks tend to tighten lending, so loan growth slows. (moves the other way; 1-2 quarters; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve H.8 (bank assets & liabilities).
- Federal Reports (Calendar): Mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield, which moves most on jobs, CPI and FOMC days, so lenders' quoted rates tend to change around these dates. (either way, depending on the cause; days; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Bond Issuance (Companies): Bond sales are the other half of business borrowing beside bank loans; steady issuance means companies can still raise money, and a sudden stop marks tight credit. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve H.8 (bank assets & liabilities).
- US Map (Domestic Intelligence): Home-purchase loans by state (HMDA) sum to national mortgage lending, so the states where new loans fall first show where a national housing slowdown is starting. (moves the same way; same year; economy scale) Source: CFPB HMDA Data Browser (home-purchase mortgages).
- Insurance Coverage (Domestic Intelligence): Mortgage lenders require proof of insurance, so where insurers stop renewing or premiums jump, home sales slow and owners turn to costlier last-resort cover such as California's FAIR Plan. (moves the other way; months; economy scale) Source: California Department of Insurance, residential market data (new, renewed, non-renewed policies by county and ZIP).
- Well-being (Domestic Intelligence): People moving in raise demand for homes, and states gaining the most domestic migrants since 2020 have seen some of the fastest home-price growth. (moves the same way; 1-2 years; economy scale) Source: Census Bureau population estimates (components of change).
- Jurisdictions (Domestic Intelligence): Recorded home sales and mortgages by place (Philadelphia's transfers, HMDA) are the local pieces of national housing activity, so a city's turn shows early in its own records. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: Philadelphia real estate transfers (Records Dept., OpenDataPhilly).
- Religious Organizations (Domestic Intelligence): Congregations own land in nearly every neighbourhood, and California's 2023 law (SB 4) fast-tracks affordable homes on it, so religious land is one source of new housing sites. (either way, depending on the cause; years; economy scale) Source: IRS Exempt Organizations Business Master File (registered churches and religious organizations).
- Finance (Global Intelligence): Mortgage rates are priced off the 10-year Treasury yield on the curve here, so a rise in long yields tends to lift mortgage rates within days and weigh on home sales later. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Migration & Economy (Immigration): Population growth from migration adds households, raising demand for rentals and homes, most in the metros where immigrants settle. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: Census population estimates (net international migration).
- Students (Immigration): Students rent near campus, so a drop in foreign enrolment tends to soften rental demand in college towns. (moves the same way; months; sector scale) Source: IPEDS fall enrollment via the Urban Institute Education Data Portal (ODC-By).
- Household Finances (Macro): When a larger share of card and auto debt is 90+ days late, banks tend to tighten lending standards and grow consumer loans more slowly. (moves the other way; 1-2 quarters; economy scale) Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax, household debt by state.
- Debt & Interest (Macro): Heavy Treasury borrowing at higher rates lifts the 10-year yield, and the 30-year mortgage rate tends to track the 10-year plus a spread, so home loans get dearer. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Live Now (Markets): On risk-off days money tends to move from stocks into Treasuries, pulling yields down, and mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield; when inflation is the worry, stocks and bond prices can fall together instead. (either way, depending on the cause; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Kalshi (Markets): Higher odds of a Fed hike tend to come with higher short-term Treasury yields, which feed into credit card, auto loan and adjustable mortgage rates. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Polymarket (Markets): Higher odds of a Fed cut tend to come with lower two-year Treasury yields, which lenders price credit cards and adjustable loans from. (moves the other way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: Polymarket US (public market data).
- Institutions & Leaders (People & Money): The heads of the largest banks set their lending standards and capital plans, and those banks hold a large share of U.S. bank credit, so their choices show in the lending totals on Credit & Housing. (either way, depending on the cause; quarters; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve H.8 (bank assets & liabilities).
- Relationship Graph (People & Money): When a bank tied to many companies runs into trouble, credit to all of them can tighten at once, as Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 cut off startup clients' deposits until regulators stepped in. (moves the other way; weeks; economy scale) Source: FDIC BankFind Suite: call-report financials of every insured bank (1984 on).
- Investment Reports (People & Money): The tracked banks' call reports show loans, deposits and charge-offs; rising charge-offs tend to be followed by tighter lending standards and slower loan growth. (moves the other way; 1-2 quarters; economy scale) Source: FDIC BankFind Suite: call-report financials of every insured bank (1984 on).
- Loans & Mortgages (Personal Finance): Higher mortgage rates raise the monthly payment on the same house, which tends to slow the home sales and new construction shown on the Credit & Housing page. (moves the other way; 1-6 months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Stays (Travel): Homes let as short-term rentals are off the long-term market, and studies link more Airbnb listings in a neighbourhood to slightly higher rents and home prices there. (moves the same way; years; sector scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Central Banks (World Powers): Rate rises pass into mortgage, card and business-loan rates, which slows borrowing and home sales; cuts work the other way. (moves the other way; weeks to months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).