Kalshi
Kalshi is a data page on the Markets desk of Glassbox Auditing. What real-money bettors expect for SPY, the Fed and the next economic reports.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- Kalshi's crowd puts the Fed's 9 Dec decision at 22% hold, 76% hike and 1% cut — Each outcome's chance, scaled to add up to 100% · the most likely decision leads · what traders expect, not a forecast (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects inflation this month (CPI, month over month): 0.3%, due 10 Nov — last reading 0.6% (Sep 2026) · middle half of guesses 0.2% to 0.3% · most likely 0.3% (44%) · higher than 41% of the last 5 years' readings · 1,216,437 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects core inflation this month (CPI ex food & energy): 0.2%, due 10 Nov — last reading 0.3% (Sep 2026) · middle half of guesses 0.2% to 0.3% · most likely 0.2% (46%) · higher than 9% of the last 5 years' readings · 910,382 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects inflation over 12 months (CPI, year over year): 3.8%, due 10 Dec — last reading 3.7% (Sep 2026) · middle half of guesses 3.7% to 3.9% · most likely 3.8% (23%) · higher than 63% of the last 5 years' readings · 742,837 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects jobs added (nonfarm payrolls): 76K jobs, due 4 Dec — last reading 165K jobs (Oct 2026) · middle half of guesses 50K jobs to 98K jobs · most likely about 75K jobs (27%) · higher than 33% of the last 5 years' readings · 10,554 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi's crowd expects economic growth (real GDP, annualized): 3.1%, due 28 Jan 2027 — last reading 3.4% (Jul 2026) · middle half of guesses 2.2% to 3.8% · most likely about 3.2% (22%) · higher than 60% of the last 5 years' readings · 64,279 contracts traded (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026)
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $735 for the next close, Mon 09 Nov, $736 a day earlier — middle half $729-$743 · 45% chance of ending higher · settles 9 Nov (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $734 for the close, Fri 13 Nov, $734 a day earlier — middle half $718-$750 · 48% chance of ending higher · settles 13 Nov (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $791 for the year end 2027, $791 a day earlier — middle half $706-$905 · 70% chance of ending higher · settles 31 Dec 2027 (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $736 for the next hour, Mon 10am ET, $736 a day earlier — middle half $730-$742 · 57% chance of ending higher · settles 9 Nov (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $754 for the year end 2026, $754 a day earlier — middle half $715-$781 · 64% chance of ending higher · settles 31 Dec (Kalshi, 8 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $739 for the next close, Fri 06 Nov, $750 a day earlier — middle half $737-$741 · 52% chance of ending higher · settles 6 Nov (Kalshi, 6 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $738 for the next hour, Fri 3pm ET — middle half $737-$740 · 54% chance of ending higher · settles 6 Nov (Kalshi, 6 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $739 for the next hour, Fri 2pm ET — middle half $726-$739 · 53% chance of ending higher · settles 6 Nov (Kalshi, 6 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $740 for the next hour, Fri 12pm ET — middle half $739-$741 · 50% chance of ending higher · settles 6 Nov (Kalshi, 6 Nov 2026) SPY
- Kalshi traders put SPY at $735 for the next hour, Fri 10am ET — middle half $732-$737 · 66% chance of ending higher · settles 6 Nov (Kalshi, 6 Nov 2026) SPY
- The Fed's median projection for its rate at the end of 2026: 4.1% — central tendency 4.1–4.4% · range 3.9–4.4% · released 16 Sep (Federal Reserve Board (Summary of Economic Projections), 15 Sep 2026)
- The Fed's median projection for its rate at the end of 2027: 4.1% — central tendency 3.6–4.4% · range 3.1–4.4% · released 16 Sep (Federal Reserve Board (Summary of Economic Projections), 15 Sep 2026)
- The Fed's median projection for its rate at the end of 2028: 3.9% — central tendency 3.1–4.1% · range 3.1–4.1% · released 16 Sep (Federal Reserve Board (Summary of Economic Projections), 15 Sep 2026)
- The Fed's median projection for its rate at the end of 2029: 3.6% — central tendency 3.1–3.6% · range 2.9–3.9% · released 16 Sep (Federal Reserve Board (Summary of Economic Projections), 15 Sep 2026)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from Kalshi; Federal Reserve Board (Summary of Economic Projections). Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Risk Monitor (Briefing): The Risk Monitor carries two Kalshi readings: the crowd's year-end SPY range with its odds of a 10%+ fall, and the odds of each move at the next Fed meeting. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- Credit & Housing (Macro): Higher odds of a Fed hike tend to come with higher short-term Treasury yields, which feed into credit card, auto loan and adjustable mortgage rates. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- SPY History (Markets): The Fed's own projections for its interest rate, shown on Kalshi beside the crowd's odds, move four times a year; a higher projected path tends to lift Treasury yields and the rate used to value future profits, which weighs on stock prices, and a lower one tends to ease it. (moves the other way; weeks; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve Board, Summary of Economic Projections (FOMC projection tables).
- Federal Reports (Calendar): Kalshi's markets on the next CPI, jobs and GDP figures settle on those releases, so their odds show what the crowd expects before each date on Federal Reports. (either way, depending on the cause; until each release; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- Report Reactions (Calendar): Markets react to the surprise against what was expected, so a release far from the Kalshi crowd's middle tends to bring a bigger SPY and 10-year yield move on Report Reactions. (either way, depending on the cause; release day; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Central Banks (World Powers): A higher expected Fed rate tends to strengthen the dollar and widen the rate gap with other countries, putting pressure on central banks whose currencies weaken against it. (moves the same way; weeks; global scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Debt & Interest (Macro): Treasury bills roll over within months, so a higher expected Fed rate means the government refinances them at higher yields and its interest bill rises soon after. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.
- Polymarket (Markets): The same Fed decision trades on Kalshi and Polymarket; traders close gaps between the two, so their odds tend to move together. (moves the same way; minutes; economy scale) Source: Polymarket US (public market data).
What feeds this page?
- Federal Reports (Calendar): Kalshi's markets on CPI, payrolls and the Fed's decision settle on these releases, so the odds move in the days before each one and settle on the day. (either way, depending on the cause; days before each release; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- All Indicators (Macro): Kalshi's markets on the Fed's rate, CPI and payrolls settle on the official figures this board carries, so the odds there are bets on the next value of these rows. (either way, depending on the cause; days before each release; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- Prices & Inflation (Macro): Hotter inflation readings tend to raise the odds Kalshi traders put on a higher Fed rate path and on the higher brackets of the next CPI print. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- Fed Statements (Macro): Kalshi's rate markets settle on the Committee's decision, and its statements, projections and the Chair's remarks are what traders read for the next one, so officials' wording can move those odds. (either way, depending on the cause; days before each meeting; economy scale) Source: Federal Reserve Board, Summary of Economic Projections (FOMC projection tables).
- Live Now (Markets): Kalshi lists contracts on where the S&P 500 ends the hour, the day and the year; their prices reprice as SPY moves, so the crowd's range shifts with the live price. (moves the same way; minutes; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- SPY (Options): SPY options and Kalshi's S&P 500 range contracts price the same outcome, so where option traders place their bets and the crowd's range on Kalshi tend to move together. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- Central Banks (World Powers): Kalshi's Fed markets price the next decision; a surprise move by another big central bank or a shift in the Fed's stance moves those odds. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
- World Log (World Powers): A Fed rate decision logged here settles Kalshi's Fed-decision markets and resets the odds for the next meeting. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.