Retirement

Retirement is a data page on the Personal Finance desk of Glassbox Auditing. What an investment became since any year from 1928, every 10, 20 and 30-year stretch of returns, how long savings lasted at different withdrawal rates, and Social Security's cost-of-living raises and claiming ages. It shows the range of outcomes history gives, not a forecast.

Last updated: 30 Dec 2025.

What is the latest reading?

$10,000 in stocks from 1996: 187,103 as of 2025, +1,425.1% since 1996. Source: Aswath Damodaran, Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills (NYU Stern).

What is on this page today?

Social Security cost-of-living raise for 2027: 3.6% — Effective January 2027; 2.8% the year before; July to September CPI-W against the last raise's base (BLS CPI-W, SSA formula, 31 Dec 2026)
4% withdrawals from a 60/40 stock and bond mix lasted 30 years in 94% of start years — 69 start years, 1928 to 1996; each year's withdrawal is 4% of the starting balance, raised with inflation; 60% S&P 500, 40% 10-year Treasury bonds (Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern, 30 Dec 2025)
U.S. stocks earned a median 7.3% a year after inflation across 69 rolling 30-year stretches since 1928, from 4.3% at worst to 10.1% at best — Every 30-year stretch within 1928 to 2025, dated by its last year · share that ended below where it began in buying power: 3-month Treasury bills 35%; 10-year Treasury bonds 33%; Gold 25% · bars: the five highest medians (Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern, 30 Dec 2025)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from BLS CPI-W, SSA formula; Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

Investing Basics (Personal Finance): How long savings last depends on the same stock and bond returns, fees and account rules laid out on Investing Basics. (moves the same way; years; economy scale) Source: Aswath Damodaran, Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills (NYU Stern).
Prices & Inflation (Macro): Social Security's yearly raise is computed from CPI-W inflation over July to September, so the cost-of-living figures here move with the price data on Prices & Inflation. (moves the same way; each October; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

What feeds this page?

Prices & Inflation (Macro): Social Security's raise each January is the rise in the CPI-W's July-September average from a year earlier, so faster inflation brings a larger cost-of-living raise on Retirement. (moves the same way; the next January; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.