Debt & Interest

Debt & Interest is a data page on the Macro desk of Glassbox Auditing. The national debt and what the government pays in interest, against its own history.

Last updated: 5 Nov 2026.

What is the latest reading?

Federal surplus or deficit by fiscal year, as a share of GDP (FRED dates each year at 1 Jan): -5.75 % of GDP as of 1 Jan 2025, -6.5 pts since Jan 1929. Source: FRED FYFSGDA188S.

What is on this page today?

Treasury option volatility (MOVE) closed at 92.77 on 6 Nov, above 69% of days since 2005 — 12.43 points lower than a month earlier · 3-month high 113.60 on 5 Oct · MOVE measures how much traders expect Treasury yields to swing over the next month (ICE Data Indices, 5 Nov 2026)
IWM fell 3.4% since MOVE's 3-month high on 5 Oct — Small caps (Russell 2000) fund · -2.7% over the last month · S&P 500 -5.1% since the same day (Consolidated daily closes, 5 Nov 2026)
EZU fell 2.0% since MOVE's 3-month high on 5 Oct — Eurozone stocks fund · -2.3% over the last month · S&P 500 -5.1% since the same day (Consolidated daily closes, 5 Nov 2026)
KRE rose 2.6% since MOVE's 3-month high on 5 Oct — Regional banks fund · +3.0% over the last month · S&P 500 -5.1% since the same day (Consolidated daily closes, 5 Nov 2026)
EWQ rose 2.6% since MOVE's 3-month high on 5 Oct — France fund · +2.6% over the last month · S&P 500 -5.1% since the same day (Consolidated daily closes, 5 Nov 2026)
Russell 2000 shares returned less than Nasdaq-100 shares on 9 of the last 20 sessions to 6 Nov — The 10-year real yield was 2.60%, +0.19 points over three months · over the last 63 sessions the ratio's daily moves and real-yield changes correlated at -0.37 (NYSE Arca, Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury, 5 Nov 2026)
The national debt: $40.56T on 5 Nov, up $2.46T on a year earlier — about $6.75B a day (U.S. Treasury (Debt to the Penny), 4 Nov 2026)
UK public debt fell from 259% of GDP in 1946 to 128% ten years later — Real growth averaged 2.9% a year and the real yield -2.0% over the ten years after the 1946 peak. After the 1923 peak the ratio rose to 190% in ten years, with real growth 1.4% and a real yield of +6.0% (Bank of England, A millennium of macroeconomic data for the UK, 5 Nov 2026)
The Treasury's cash account held $923 billion on 5 Nov, 2% below a year earlier — 52-week range $687 billion (9 Apr) to $1,053 billion (27 Oct) · total debt $40.56 trillion, $32.77 trillion of it held by the public (U.S. Treasury (Daily Treasury Statement), 4 Nov 2026)
The Treasury bought back $284B of its debt in the year to 5 Nov, 1.2% of the notes, bonds and TIPS outstanding — 77 completed operations · par value accepted, from operations the Treasury ran to smooth trading in older bonds and to manage cash (U.S. Treasury (Bureau of the Fiscal Service) (Treasury securities buyback operations), 4 Nov 2026)
Bills were 23.0% of marketable Treasury debt at the end of October 2026, 1.0 points more than a year earlier — Marketable debt of $32.2T · bills mature within a year, so their share is a floor for the debt that must be refinanced within the year (U.S. Treasury (Bureau of the Fiscal Service) (Monthly Statement of the Public Debt), 30 Oct 2026)
The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on 30 Oct, 0.83 points above a year earlier: +0.41 from the term premium and +0.42 from expected short rates — 4.11% a year earlier · the part from expected short rates is the yield less the premium, the average short rate the model expects over ten years (Federal Reserve Board (Treasury yields, H.15; Kim-Wright term premium model), 29 Oct 2026)
The 10-year term premium was 0.91% on 30 Oct, 0.41 points above a year earlier — 0.49% a year earlier · a model estimate of what investors want beyond the expected path of short rates for holding 10-year debt, not a market price (Federal Reserve Board (Treasury yields, H.15; Kim-Wright term premium model), 29 Oct 2026)
30-Year Treasury bond auction, 8 Oct (reopening): high yield 5.618% — bid-to-cover 2.54 · indirect bidders 72.3% of competitive bids (not all foreign) · direct 20.9% · primary dealers 6.8% · $22.5B accepted (U.S. Treasury FiscalData, 8 Oct 2026)
10-Year Treasury note auction, 7 Oct (reopening): high yield 5.300% — bid-to-cover 2.77 · indirect bidders 80.3% of competitive bids (not all foreign) · direct 17.1% · primary dealers 2.5% · $39.9B accepted (U.S. Treasury FiscalData, 7 Oct 2026)
Interest on the debt: $1.05T this fiscal year through September 2026, +8.4% on last year — $970B by the same point last year (U.S. Treasury (Monthly Treasury Statement), 29 Sep 2026)
Foreign governments and investors held 23.9% of the national debt in Q1 2026, the Federal Reserve 12.0%, U.S. trust funds 19.5% — Everyone else in the U.S. (banks, funds, households, states) 44.6% · foreign share 25.0% a year earlier · of $39.1 trillion (U.S. Treasury, 30 Mar 2026)
Interest on the federal debt took 3.94% of GDP in fiscal 2025, up from 3.86% in fiscal 2024 — A record · the debt was 121% of GDP in Q2 2026 (Office of Management and Budget, 29 Sep 2025)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from ICE Data Indices; Consolidated daily closes; NYSE Arca, Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury; U.S. Treasury (Debt to the Penny); Bank of England, A millennium of macroeconomic data for the UK; U.S. Treasury (Daily Treasury Statement); U.S. Treasury (Bureau of the Fiscal Service) (Treasury securities buyback operations); U.S. Treasury (Bureau of the Fiscal Service) (Monthly Statement of the Public Debt). Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

Budget & Spending (Macro): Net interest is now one of the largest federal outlays, so each rise in the average rate on the debt adds to total spending and the deficit without any new program. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.
Credit & Housing (Macro): Heavy Treasury borrowing at higher rates lifts the 10-year yield, and the 30-year mortgage rate tends to track the 10-year plus a spread, so home loans get dearer. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Valuation (Companies): Higher real yields discount distant profits more steeply, which tends to pull price-to-earnings multiples down, most for growth companies whose earnings lie far ahead. (moves the other way; weeks to months; sector scale) Source: FRED, 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed yield (DFII10).
Bond Issuance (Companies): Corporate bonds are priced as a spread over Treasuries, so higher Treasury yields raise the coupon on new company debt and the interest cost at refinancing, which tends to slow issuance by weaker borrowers. (moves the other way; weeks to months; company scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Central Banks (World Powers): Foreign central banks and the Fed hold a large share of Treasuries; when either holds less, as in the Fed's balance-sheet runoff, private buyers must absorb more of the debt, which tends to need higher yields. (either way, depending on the cause; months to years; global scale) Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 (the Fed's balance sheet).
Federal Reports (Calendar): A larger deficit is financed through more and bigger Treasury auctions, which appear on the federal calendar and are watched for weak demand. (moves the same way; weeks; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny.
Household Finances (Macro): Treasury rates pass through to savings and money-fund yields and to card and auto loan rates, so higher rates raise interest income for savers and costs for borrowers. (either way, depending on the cause; weeks to months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Loans & Mortgages (Personal Finance): The 30-year mortgage rate tends to track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread, so a rise in long yields reaches the mortgage rates and monthly payments on Loans & Mortgages within days to weeks. (moves the same way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

What feeds this page?

Nation (AI): CBO's projections show faster productivity growth raising tax revenue and narrowing deficits, and slower growth widening them. (moves the other way; years; economy scale) Source: Congressional Budget Office (budget categories).
Today (Briefing): The 10-year yield on Today is close to what the Treasury pays to borrow for ten years, so when it stays higher the cost of new and refinanced federal debt rises. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Federal Reports (Calendar): Treasury auctions on the calendar are where new federal debt is sold; weak demand at an auction tends to lift yields that day, and strong demand to lower them. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny.
IPO Watch (Calendar): A large stock sale, the AI companies' bond sales that fund data centers and the Treasury's note and bond auctions draw on the same investors' cash; auction demand and hyperscaler issuance are on Debt & Interest. (either way, depending on the cause; the weeks around the sale; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury FiscalData, Treasury securities auctions (results by auction).
Report Reactions (Calendar): The 10-year yield's reaction to CPI and jobs reports carries into what the Treasury pays on the new debt it sells afterwards. (moves the same way; the next auctions; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Finance (Global Intelligence): Higher Treasury yields raise what the government pays as it rolls over maturing debt, which shows up in its interest outlays over the following months and years. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.
Budget & Spending (Macro): Each year's gap between spending and receipts is borrowed, so a wider deficit adds directly to the debt and to future interest costs. (moves the same way; same fiscal year; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.
Prices & Inflation (Macro): Higher inflation lifts Treasury yields, the payments on inflation-protected bonds and Social Security's cost-of-living raise, so the government's interest and benefit costs rise with it. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.
SPY History (Markets): Leveraged funds are often net short Treasury futures against cash bonds they hold (the basis trade); when a crowded position like that unwinds, the bonds go with it, so shifts in this weekly positioning can arrive with moves in the yields the government pays. (either way, depending on the cause; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (E-mini Russell 2000, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500; 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, Ultra 10-year, bond and Ultra bond Treasuries; 3-month SOFR; VIX; U.S. dollar index; yen; euro).
Kalshi (Markets): Treasury bills roll over within months, so a higher expected Fed rate means the government refinances them at higher yields and its interest bill rises soon after. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.
Loans & Mortgages (Personal Finance): Lenders price mortgages and other loans over the government's own borrowing cost, so consumer loan rates and the Treasury yields on the Debt & Interest page rise and fall together. (moves the same way; same week; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Power Board (World Powers): Foreign governments hold a large share of U.S. Treasuries (Japan, China and the U.K. lead); a change in a holder's alignment or reserve policy changes demand for U.S. debt. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Economies & Debt (World Powers): Government bond yields move together across big economies; a jump in yields in Japan, the U.K. or Germany tends to pull U.S. Treasury yields with it. (moves the same way; days to weeks; global scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Central Banks (World Powers): The Fed's rate sets the short end of the Treasury curve and feeds what the government pays to refinance its debt. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).