Polymarket
Polymarket is a data page on the Markets desk of Glassbox Auditing. Prediction-market odds on finance and government questions, and who is betting big.
Last updated: .
What is on this page today?
- Settled big positions that matched the insider pattern won 30% of the time (42 of 138), against 40% as the average price paid — watch-list positions 60% (145 of 242) · all other big positions 83% (4328 of 5227) · a price is the crowd's chance, so winning less often than it was priced means the bets did worse than the crowd expected · a pattern… (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- The Fed's 9 Dec decision on three exchanges: hike 0.25 pts at 75% on Kalshi, 75% on Polymarket US, 77% on Polymarket — The exchanges agree within 5 points on every outcome · each exchange's chances are scaled to add up to 100%; different crowds with different money (Kalshi · Polymarket US · Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- 45 big Polymarket positions in the last 7 days matched the insider pattern, $2.22M staked — 128 more show enough of its traits to watch, $4.75M staked · positions of $5,000 or more on finance and government questions; the bars are the five questions with the largest stakes · traits: a new wallet, few markets… (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- The largest order waiting on Polymarket US is $130,761 to sell yes (the same as buying no) on “2028 Republican Presidential Nominee: Vivek Ramaswamy” at 2¢ — Resting orders of $10,000 or more in the order books, the five largest · someone has money committed at that price; the exchange names no one · each book is read about hourly (Polymarket US, 8 Nov 2026)
- “Build Your Map: AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX: Democrats sweep all 7” traded 2,738,654 contracts over the last day, the most on Polymarket US — Contracts traded between each market's latest order-book reading and the one about 24 hours earlier, the five busiest · where news is being traded (Polymarket US, 8 Nov 2026)
- Polymarket's top traders this month made $1.17M (Politics), $256,665 (Economy), $178,864 (Finance) — Profit this month of the first-ranked trader on each of Polymarket's own leaderboards, gains not yet cashed in included · the top ten on each board made $8.22M (Politics), $845,506 (Economy), $954,031 (Finance) together… (Polymarket, 8 Nov 2026)
- $152,810 bet on “No”: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — 6 trades in 48 hours · Geopolitics (Polymarket, 7 Nov 2026)
- $110,036 sold out of “No”: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — 7 trades in 48 hours · Geopolitics (Polymarket, 7 Nov 2026)
- $258,847 bet on “No”: US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026? — 18 trades in 48 hours · Geopolitics (Polymarket, 7 Nov 2026)
- $105,275 bet on “Yes”: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? — 11 trades in 48 hours · Geopolitics (Polymarket, 7 Nov 2026)
- $374,682 bet on “Yes”: US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? — 11 trades in 48 hours · Geopolitics (Polymarket, 6 Nov 2026)
- $154,781 bet on “No”: US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026? — 14 trades in 48 hours · Geopolitics (Polymarket, 6 Nov 2026)
Where does the data come from?
Items on this page come from Polymarket; Kalshi · Polymarket US · Polymarket; Polymarket US. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.
What does this page lead to?
- Election Outlook (Domestic Intelligence): Election Outlook turns Polymarket's prices on each race into a market-implied lean, so a shift in the odds here moves that page's market reading. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
- Migration & Economy (Immigration): Polymarket's immigration markets (deportations, border policy) are charted on Migration & Economy beside the labor data that policy reaches. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
- Labs & Countries (AI): Polymarket's AI ranking markets price which lab will hold the top model; Labs & Countries sets those odds beside measured benchmark results. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; sector scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
- Leaders & Policy (World Powers): Polymarket's politics and geopolitics markets price leadership changes, ceasefires and sanctions; sharp moves there tend to arrive with the policy-uncertainty readings on Leaders & Policy. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; global scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Lawmaking (Domestic Intelligence): Odds on control of Congress price which party will write tax, spending and regulation bills; Lawmaking tracks those bills once they are filed. (either way, depending on the cause; months; economy scale) Source: Polymarket US (public market data).
- Credit & Housing (Macro): Higher odds of a Fed cut tend to come with lower two-year Treasury yields, which lenders price credit cards and adjustable loans from. (moves the other way; days to weeks; economy scale) Source: Polymarket US (public market data).
What feeds this page?
- Labs & Countries (AI): Polymarket's AI-ranking markets pay out on which company tops the LMArena leaderboard by a date, so a lab's rise or fall in the rankings moves the odds bettors give it. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; sector scale) Source: LMArena leaderboard dataset.
- Migration & Economy (Immigration): Prediction markets price deportation and border-policy questions; the page shows their odds beside the measured flows. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; sector scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
- Kalshi (Markets): The same Fed decision trades on Kalshi and Polymarket; traders close gaps between the two, so their odds tend to move together. (moves the same way; minutes; economy scale) Source: Polymarket US (public market data).
- Elections & Polls (World Powers): Prediction markets trade on national election outcomes, and a shift in the poll averages tends to move those odds within hours. (moves the same way; same day; global scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).
- World Log (World Powers): Elections and leader changes recorded here are what many prediction markets settle on; each event resolves or reprices them. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; global scale) Source: Polymarket (public blockchain trades and wallet profiles).