Prices & Inflation

Prices & Inflation is a data page on the Macro desk of Glassbox Auditing. How fast prices are rising for households and businesses.

Last updated: 5 Nov 2026.

What is the latest reading?

Core CPI: the print minus traders' last guess: 0.10 points as of 1 Sep 2026, +0.0 pts since Jun 2022. Source: Kalshi prediction markets, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What is on this page today?

The 5-year breakeven inflation rate was 2.29% on 6 Nov, the 10-year Treasury yield 4.84% — 2.37% a month earlier · households expected 4.6% inflation over the next year (Michigan survey, September 2026) · gold $4,075 an ounce on 6 Nov, -2.7% on a month earlier (U.S. Treasury, University of Michigan and COMEX, 5 Nov 2026)
PCE inflation: 3.6% over 12 months in September 2026 — 3.4% the time before · 2.8% a year earlier (BEA, 28 Oct 2026)
Core PCE inflation: 3.1% over 12 months in September 2026 — 3.0% the time before · 2.8% a year earlier (BEA, 28 Oct 2026)
Producer prices (all commodities): 12.8% over 12 months in September 2026 — 9.8% the time before · 3.7% a year earlier (BLS, 14 Oct 2026)
Core CPI (ex food and energy), month over month: 0.3% for September 2026, 0.1 above Kalshi's last middle guess of 0.2% — Of the last 12 prints, 2 above the guess, 3 below and 7 in line · SPY -1.1% and the 10-year yield -2.7 bp on release day · The print as the market settled it, before revisions (Kalshi, BLS and NYSE Arca, 14 Oct 2026)
Headline CPI, over 12 months: 3.7% for September 2026, 0.1 above Kalshi's last middle guess of 3.6% — Of the last 12 prints, 3 above the guess, 5 below and 4 in line · SPY -1.1% and the 10-year yield -2.7 bp on release day · The print as the market settled it, before revisions (Kalshi, BLS and NYSE Arca, 14 Oct 2026)
CPI inflation: 3.7% over 12 months in September 2026 — 3.4% the time before · 3.0% a year earlier (BLS, 13 Oct 2026)
Headline CPI, month over month: 0.6% for September 2026, in line with Kalshi's last middle guess of 0.6% — Of the last 12 prints, 1 above the guess, 2 below and 9 in line · SPY -1.1% and the 10-year yield -2.7 bp on release day · The print as the market settled it, before revisions (Kalshi, BLS and NYSE Arca, 14 Oct 2026)
Core CPI (ex food and energy): 2.6% over 12 months in September 2026 — 2.4% the time before · 3.0% a year earlier (BLS, 13 Oct 2026)
Gasoline (all types): prices up 34.2% over 12 months to September 2026 — -0.5% a year earlier · +9.1% on the month · U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Airline fares: prices up 22.4% over 12 months to September 2026 — +3.0% a year earlier · +1.2% on the month · U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Energy prices, 12-month rise: 20.4% in September 2026, +17.4 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 2.9% · above 89% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Motor vehicle insurance: prices down 5.0% over 12 months to September 2026 — +3.2% a year earlier · +0.1% on the month · U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Utility (piped) gas service: prices up 5.0% over 12 months to September 2026 — +11.8% a year earlier · -0.3% on the month · U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Electricity: prices up 4.4% over 12 months to September 2026 — +5.1% a year earlier · +0.2% on the month · U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Used cars and trucks: prices down 1.5% over 12 months to September 2026 — +5.1% a year earlier · +0.7% on the month · U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Prices of everything except housing, 12-month rise: 4.0% in September 2026, +1.3 pts on a year earlier — A year earlier 2.7% · above 80% of readings in the last 20 years (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Median CPI rose 2.6% over 12 months to September 2026, sticky-price CPI 2.8% — 3.5% a year earlier · the median and trimmed-mean gauges set aside each month's most extreme price moves · the Cleveland Fed's model expects 3.0% inflation over the next year (Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Atlanta and Dallas and BLS, 29 Sep 2026)
Consumer prices rose 5.2% over 12 months in Urban Hawaii, the most of 27 regions and metro areas BLS covers — The least: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land +1.3% · all items, not seasonally adjusted, against the same month a year earlier; most metros are printed every other month, so the latest month differs by area (BLS, 29 Sep 2026)

Where does the data come from?

Items on this page come from U.S. Treasury, University of Michigan and COMEX; BEA; BLS; Kalshi, BLS and NYSE Arca; Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Atlanta and Dallas and BLS. Each item links to its own source. All sources, how items are checked.

What does this page lead to?

Central Banks (World Powers): Inflation above the Fed's 2% goal tends to keep the policy rate higher for longer; the Fed's decisions and real rates are tracked beside other central banks'. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Kalshi (Markets): Hotter inflation readings tend to raise the odds Kalshi traders put on a higher Fed rate path and on the higher brackets of the next CPI print. (moves the same way; same day; economy scale) Source: Kalshi prediction markets.
Report Reactions (Calendar): CPI days are among the largest scheduled moves for SPY and the 10-year yield; a print above expectations tends to lift yields and weigh on stocks, and one below tends to do the reverse. (either way, depending on the cause; same day; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Household Finances (Macro): When prices rise faster than pay, real disposable income falls, which squeezes household budgets most in high-cost states and lower-income homes. (moves the other way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA).
Debt & Interest (Macro): Higher inflation lifts Treasury yields, the payments on inflation-protected bonds and Social Security's cost-of-living raise, so the government's interest and benefit costs rise with it. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.
Labor Market (Macro): Workers tend to win cost-of-living raises after prices jump, so wage growth tends to follow inflation with a lag. (moves the same way; 6-12 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Energy & Materials (Macro): Gold tends to gain when inflation outruns interest rates, since holding it then costs less in forgone real yield. (moves the same way; months; sector scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Valuation (Companies): Higher inflation tends to lift bond yields and lower the price investors pay per dollar of earnings, most for companies whose profits lie far ahead. (moves the other way; months; sector scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Taxes (Personal Finance): The IRS raises each bracket threshold and the standard deduction every year by chained CPI inflation, so faster inflation widens the brackets on Taxes the next tax year. (moves the same way; the next tax year; economy scale) Source: IRS annual inflation adjustments (Rev. Proc. 2024-40 for 2025, Rev. Proc. 2025-32 for 2026).
Retirement (Personal Finance): Social Security's raise each January is the rise in the CPI-W's July-September average from a year earlier, so faster inflation brings a larger cost-of-living raise on Retirement. (moves the same way; the next January; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What feeds this page?

Nation (AI): Faster productivity growth lowers labor cost per unit of output, which tends to ease price pressure. (moves the other way; years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Trade Exposure (Companies): Tariffs are paid by the importer at the border and tend to be passed on in part to shelf prices, so higher duties on these companies' goods raise core goods inflation over the following months. (moves the same way; 3-12 months; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
Cloud Prices (Companies): Cloud and data-processing fees are a business cost the producer price index tracks (data processing and hosting services), so list-price rises feed it. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Competitors (Companies): Markets with more rivals tend to hold prices down, while markets with few competitors leave more pricing power to the leaders. (moves the other way; years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Auto & Energy (Companies): New and used vehicle prices are a large part of core goods inflation, so carmakers' pricing and incentives feed the CPI. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Fuel & Charging (Domestic Intelligence): Gasoline is about 3% of the CPI basket and its most volatile part, so a pump-price jump shows in headline inflation the same month. (moves the same way; same month; economy scale) Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (weekly retail $/gallon).
Amazon Listings (Feed): Listing prices of tracked brands are retail prices of goods; a broad rise across them is the same kind of change the core goods part of the CPI measures. (moves the same way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
Live Trains (Global Intelligence): When trains slow and loaded cars sit, shippers move some freight to costlier trucks and some plants cut output for want of cars, as in the 2022 rail service problems the STB held hearings on, which feeds freight prices. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: BLS producer price indexes for freight (truckload, LTL, rail, deep-sea, air) and the Cass Freight Index, via FRED.
Commodities (Global Intelligence): Farm, fertilizer and energy prices pass into producer prices first and then into what households pay for food and fuel over the following months. (moves the same way; 1-6 months; economy scale) Source: BLS producer price indexes: diesel fuel, farm products, fertilizer, processed foods, via FRED.
Energy (Global Intelligence): Power plant and gas supply outages raise wholesale electricity costs, which utilities pass into household bills, part of the consumer price index, over the following months. (moves the same way; months; economy scale) Source: EIA electricity retail sales (residential price by state).
Oil & Tankers (Global Intelligence): Gasoline is the most volatile part of the consumer price index, so oil supply shocks show in headline inflation within a month or two. (moves the same way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
Conflict Zones (Global Intelligence): Red Sea attacks since late 2023 sent most Suez traffic round Africa, adding one to two weeks per voyage and raising ocean freight rates, a cost that reaches the prices of imported goods. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: BLS producer price indexes for freight (truckload, LTL, rail, deep-sea, air) and the Cass Freight Index, via FRED.
Disasters (Global Intelligence): Rebuilding after a large disaster raises demand for lumber, roofing and other building materials, which tends to lift their producer prices for a few months. (moves the same way; months; sector scale) Source: BLS producer price indexes: lumber and inputs to residential construction, via FRED.
Migration & Economy (Immigration): More workers ease wage pressure in industries that rely on immigrants (farms, construction, food service), while new residents add demand for housing and goods; the net effect on prices depends on which is larger. (either way, depending on the cause; months to years; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Budget & Spending (Macro): Large deficits add to demand; when the economy is near full employment that tends to push prices up, while spending cuts or tax rises work the other way. (moves the same way; 6-18 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA).
Tariffs & Government (Macro): Importers pass part of a tariff on to buyers, which shows first in core goods prices in CPI over the following months. (moves the same way; 3-12 months; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
Labor Market (Macro): Wages are the biggest cost for service businesses, so fast wage growth tends to keep services inflation high. (moves the same way; 6-12 months; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Credit & Housing (Macro): Shelter is about a third of CPI and follows market rents and home prices with a lag of about a year, so housing costs feed inflation slowly. (moves the same way; about a year; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Energy & Materials (Macro): Gasoline and other fuels are the most volatile part of CPI and follow crude within weeks, so oil swings move headline inflation more than core. (moves the same way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Natural Gas (Macro): Natural gas heats about half of U.S. homes and fuels much of the power supply, so it feeds the utility gas and electricity lines of CPI. (moves the same way; 1-6 months; economy scale) Source: EIA natural gas data (API v2): weekly storage; monthly production, consumption, trade and prices.
Oil Stress (Macro): Crude is the largest cost in a gallon of gasoline, so a crude jump reaches the energy part of CPI within a month or two. (moves the same way; 1-2 months; economy scale) Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report (stocks, refinery runs, product supplied, trade).
Oil to Prices (Macro): The chain ends in consumer prices: gasoline within weeks, then airfares, food away from home and core goods as freight and materials costs pass through. (moves the same way; 1-6 months; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
Retirement (Personal Finance): Social Security's yearly raise is computed from CPI-W inflation over July to September, so the cost-of-living figures here move with the price data on Prices & Inflation. (moves the same way; each October; economy scale) Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Overview (Travel): Airline fares, train and bus fares and hotel rates are items in the consumer price index, so a broad rise in the travel prices tracked here adds to services inflation. (moves the same way; the next monthly report; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Flights (Travel): Airline fares are a line in the consumer price index, so a broad rise in fares adds to services inflation. (moves the same way; the next monthly report; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.
Trains (Travel): Intercity train fares are an item in the consumer price index's public transportation group, so broad fare rises add to transport inflation. (moves the same way; the next monthly report; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Buses (Travel): Intercity bus fares and city transit fares are items in the consumer price index's public transportation group, so fare rises add to transport inflation. (moves the same way; the next monthly report; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Stays (Travel): Lodging away from home, hotels included, is an item in the consumer price index, so a broad rise in room rates adds to services inflation. (moves the same way; the next monthly report; economy scale) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Economies & Debt (World Powers): Higher inflation in the countries the U.S. buys from shows up in U.S. import prices and then in the prices of goods on shelves. (moves the same way; months; global scale) Source: BLS import price indexes (all goods; excluding fuels), via FRED.
Resources & Energy (World Powers): Energy and food are where world supply shocks enter U.S. prices first, through gasoline and grocery bills. (moves the same way; 1-3 months; economy scale) Source: BLS consumer price indexes (food at home and away, airline fares, core goods, gasoline, all items), via FRED.